A new U.S. intelligence assessment on Iran may once again be inaccurate. Last week, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released its annual worldwide threat assessment, including an updated estimate on Iran’s nuclear program and efforts to construct a nuclear device, known as “weaponization.” The estimate stated categorically — and possibly erroneously — that Tehran is “not building a nuclear weapon.” The estimate likely does not go far enough in characterizing weaponization-related activities that Iran has reportedly been carrying out since at least early 2024.
Iran’s Suspicious Nuclear Activities Persist
Around March 2024, according to an Axios report citing U.S. and Israeli officials, the United States and Israel detected Iran carrying out dual-use metallurgical research and computer modeling that could have applications in building a nuclear device. “Israeli and U.S. intelligence agencies believe [Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei has refrained from explicitly and officially approving the activity in order to leave room for plausible deniability,” the report stated.
Some officials assess that Tehran’s weaponization-related activities were cause for concern, while others disagree. Still, in June 2024, the Biden administration reportedly told Iran to shut down the observed activities.
ODNI Changes Assessment
In July 2024, ODNI suddenly removed a crucial phrase from an updated Iran nuclear and missile assessment to Congress, namely that “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” ODNI had included a variation of the phrase in worldwide threat assessments every year since 2019 and repeated it as recently as March 2024.
However, during an October 2024 counterstrike against Iran, Israel reportedly destroyed a small facility called Taleghan 2 within Iran’s Parchin military complex. Prior to 2004, according to information from an Iranian nuclear archive, Tehran carried out experiments at Taleghan 2 related to initiating high explosives that would compress an atomic core and set off a nuclear blast. According to Israeli officials quoted by Axios, Iranian experts were again carrying out similar work, so Jerusalem acted to destroy the equipment. Yet a separate weaponization-related activity may have prompted the strike.
In February 2025, The New York Times reported that during the final months of the Biden administration, the United States and Israel detected a secret team of Iranian “weapons engineers and scientists” working to shortcut the regime’s timeline to nuclear weapons by exploring how to build so-called “crude” nuclear weapons. A crude nuclear device may require just six months to produce, rather than one year or longer to make smaller, missile-deliverable devices.
Reassessment Needed
While ODNI assesses that Iran is not currently building a nuclear weapon, U.S. intelligence may not be adequately considering that weaponization-related activities are part of building such a device.
ODNI should review its recent intelligence and estimate of Iran’s weaponization-related work. A more forward-leaning U.S. intelligence assessment that calls out possible weaponization work would provide a needed signal to Tehran that Washington is closely watching its activities. Iran takes such estimates seriously — the regime’s foreign minister posted on X an effective endorsement of ODNI’s latest estimate in a misguided effort to defend Tehran’s nonproliferation record.
For its part, alongside its credible military threat against Iran and maximum pressure campaign, the Trump administration must refuse negotiations with Tehran unless it agrees to the full, verifiable, and permanent dismantlement of the regime’s nuclear weapons program as a basis for talks.
Andrea Stricker is a research fellow and deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from the author and FDD, please subscribeHERE. Follow Andrea on X@StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on X@FDD and@FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
Issues:
Iran Iran Missiles Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation U.S. Defense Policy and Strategy