It’s 1979 and the National Basketball Association in America has decided to trial a three-point line, almost 20 years after the American Basketball League had first implemented the rule.
On October 12, Chris Ford knocked down the first ever three-point shot for the Boston Celtics against the Houston Rockets. Two more from outside the arc would follow on that night.
At first, the three-point shot was viewed with scepticism. NBA teams didn’t see the value in it.
That first year, NBA teams averaged only 2.8 three-point attempts per game. By the 2019/20 season, attempts had reached an average of 34.1 per game. Granted, that’s a 40-year difference.
But the swing is huge.
Just this season alone – the Dallas Mavericks are averaging 34.7 threes attempted per game. That’s the fewest of any team in the league.
Are we going to see something similar with the implementation of the two-point arc in Gaelic football? It’s hard to see any situation where football doesn’t end up following a somewhat similar path.
That change for the NBA wasn’t as gradual as it appears on the surface, though. There was a revolution. That revolution happened in San Francisco, and the revolutionary was Steph Curry.
THE CURRY EFFECT
His deadeye accuracy transformed the Golden State Warriors in every possible way – with their approach to games heavily dependent on Curry’s success beyond the arc, and three point shooting as a whole.
They became a dominant force, winning four NBA titles between 2015 and 2019, as well as claiming the Western Conference crown in each season.
Spike Lee watches Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors shoot against the New York Knicks during their game at Madison Square Garden on December 14, 2021. Picture: Al Bello/Getty Images
In 2016, despite not winning the NBA finals – the Warriors set a regular season record of 73 wins and nine losses – the best any team has ever achieved in the history of the NBA. Curry averaged a 45.4% conversion rate from three-point range as they set a 54-game home win streak.
Klay Thompson (42.5%) and Draymond Green (38.8%) followed closely behind as the Warriors transformed basketball. The rest of the league had no choice but to adapt. That adaptation is now there for all to see.
Three-point attempts this season have reached record highs. The Boston Celtics are averaging 48.3 shots from outside the arc per game. The Chicago Bulls, Warriors and Cavaliers are all shooting over 40 a match.
ADAPTATION
Gaelic football fans may not have access to the depth of stats that their NBA counterparts receive – but take last weekend’s third round action in the Division 1 Football League. A total of 15 two-pointers were scored across the five league games last weekend.
Ten were scored in week two, 15 in the first week. While we don’t have the conversion percentages or shots attempted, the total orange flags raised differs greatly between teams.
St Finbarr’s are the Division 1 leaders with eight orange flags in three games. That’s more than Douglas, Castlehaven, Éire Óg and Nemo Rangers combined.
Barring Castlehaven with three orange flags, the other three aforementioned teams only have one each. Compare that to Carrigaline and Cill na Martra, who have scored seven each.
Carrigaline may be winless in three games but don’t let that fool you. Brian Coakley has scored four two-pointers in that time, and if Brian O’Driscoll’s form with Cork is anything to go by – they’ll be a threat from outside the arc in the summer.
I’m not hailing O’Driscoll as the next Steph Curry, nor Carrigaline as the future revolutionaries of Gaelic football – but keep it in mind come championship.
Similarly Jason Mac Cárthaigh (two frees) and Micheál Ó Deasúna (one free) have three each for Cill na Martra and could be impactful come championship.
The leading two-point scorer in Division 1 is still Steven Sherlock with four, despite the former Cork footballer only playing one game.
Castlehaven's Mark Collins is tackled by St. Finbarr's Steven Sherlock. Picture: Eddie O'Hare
I won’t call him Steph Sherlock just yet given three of those were from frees, but how the two-point arc changes the game at club level will be fascinating, let alone the long-term intercounty development.
The teams that can create the right patterns of play and find the space for consistent two-points scoring opportunities are going to have a lot of success this year.
It may take some time before we see a drastic rise in two-point scores, or attempts for that matter – but there will likely be a long-term impact.