The Final Four begins on Saturday in San Antonio and the star power is off the charts. A slew of future NBA Draft picks will be on display. Both Wooden Award candidates, Johni Broome at Auburn and Cooper Flagg at Duke, will be part of the action. One of college basketball’s best guards, Walter Clayton Jr., will take the court for Florida. With a national title on the line, big plays are bound to be made.
Here’s how you can take advantage of that in the DFS scene. Below are 3 players who might surpass their expectations.
Walter Clayton Jr., Florida guard: More than 3.5 assists
Underdog Fantasy has Walter Clayton Jr.’s assists number set at 3.5. Florida’s lead guard has 4 in each of his last 2 games. He had only 1 against UConn, 2 against Norfolk State, and 2 against Tennessee in the title fight at the SEC Tournament. Before that, he had at least 4 in 10 of his previous 11 games. That stretch included a season-high 9 in the only other meeting between Florida and Auburn this season. Clayton played every single minute of that game, a 90-81 Florida victory. He took 11 shots — 8 of them from beyond the 3-point line — and finished with 3 turnovers. While he might not set another season-high, he should be able to set up teammates again. Auburn is aggressive on the perimeter, looking to chase teams off the 3-point line and force takeaways to generate run-out opportunities. And when Florida started finding its offensive rhythm throughout the first half of the first meeting, it made Auburn pay for those gambles. Clayton, a smart, seasoned player, will be at the top of the Auburn scouting report. The Tigers will want to crowd him and prevent him from getting hot. That should open up opportunities to play-make for other teammates.
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Miles Kelly, Auburn guard: More than 1.5 3-pointers
Underdog set Miles Kelly’s point total at 12.5 for Auburn’s Final Four game and his 3-pointers at 1.5. The 6-4 guard has been in an extended shooting slump over the last few games but he’s too talented a scorer for that slump to last much longer. He has proven time and time again this season of being capable of catching fire in an instant. That happened in the first round, when Kelly connected on 7 triples to score 23 points. He nailed 9 in a game against Kentucky last month. And he scored 22 points on 3-of-9 shooting against the Gators when they played in February. Kelly has at least 1 made 3 in all but 1 game he has played in since last Christmas. He has at least 5 attempts from 3-point range in all but 2 games since the start of February. He’s the Tigers’ go-to shooter from beyond the arc and, while streaky, he’s a swing piece in this matchup. Florida defends the 3-ball as well as any team in the country, but Kelly should get his looks.
Kon Knueppel, Duke guard: More than 1.5 3-pointers
Underdog has Knueppel’s total for made 3s at 1.5. That number reflects just how much respect is being paid to the Houston defense. Both teams are expected to have to grind out possessions for points, with the Cougars ranking No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Possessions are going to be limited against the slow-moving Cougs. Their last 2 opponents have scored 60 and 50 points. Houston’s defense does, however, give up a high assist rate and with a player like Cooper Flagg drawing as much attention as he does, there are going to be open looks for Duke’s perimeter players. Knueppel has multiple makes from 3 in each of his last 3 games and has been quite aggressive as a scorer since the start of the ACC Tournament.
Derek Peterson
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.