The Minnesota Timberwolves turned some heads last season by eliminating the Denver Nuggets in the second round, going all the way to the Western Conference for the first time since the Kevin Garnett era. However, prior to the 2024-25 season, their foundation had already been compromised, caused by a trade that saw the team part ways with Karl-Anthony Towns in a blockbuster trade.
And just like the critics expected, the Timberwolves weren't as dangerous, given that Randle was in no way filling the void of Towns. In fact, they're currently involved in a tight race that could see them either make the playoffs as a top-six team or through the Play-In Tournament, a clear contrast to last season's third-seeded finish.
Playing in the wild Western Conference, it won't be a walk in the park for Minnesota on whoever they face in the postseason. However, there are some matchups that could be more favorable compared to others. For this piece, let's take a look at the Timberwolves' dream and nightmare scenarios for the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
Dream scenario: A playoff rematch against the Denver Nuggets
Last year, the Timberwolves were responsible for dethroning the Denver Nuggets at the Western Conference Semifinals. And even without Towns, their mastery over the Nuggets has remained the same. In the 2024-25 season, Minnesota has swept the Nuggets in the regular season, 4-0, including a 140-139 overtime thriller victory to spoil Nikola Jokic's 61-point triple-double. Given that the Wolves have their number, it seems that the Nuggets would be an ideal matchup in the first round.
By now, everyone has realized that the Wolves roster was constructed to slow down Denver's Jokic. The reigning three-time NBA MVP struggles against twin-tower combinations. With Naz Reid and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert anchoring Minnesota's frontcourt to go along with the addition of former NBA Most Improved Player Julius Randle, Jokic and the Nuggets will be forced to exorcise their curse against the Timberwolves as early as the first round.
Aside from having the frontcourt personnel, the Wolves also have Anthony Edwards to terrorize the Nuggets' lackluster perimeter defense as a shot creator. In addition to this, you can also expect Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo to punish Denver with their marksmanship from deep.
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Luckily for Minnesota, this scenario has a good chance of materializing. For now, the Timberwolves sit at the sixth seed with a 44-32 record, holding a tiebreaker over the Memphis Grizzlies. They can either catch up to the Golden State Warriors, who have a 44-31 record, for the fifth seed or hope that the Nuggets can chase the Los Angeles Lakers to reclaim the third seed. Nonetheless, the Timberwolves have a relatively light schedule to finish the season strong, giving them a solid chance to make the playoffs without going through the Play-In Tournament.
Nightmare scenario: Timberwolves fall to the Play-In Tournament and play the Thunder in the first round
While the Timberwolves have pulled themselves out of the Play-In Tournament conversation for now, the team is still at risk of missing an automatic spot in the postseason. The worst-case scenario would be for the Timberwolves to fall into the Play-In Tournament. By now, every basketball fan knows that falling into the play-in isn't an ideal road to a championship.
By going down to the 7th-10th seed, Minnesota risks seeing their playoff chances go up in smoke by possibly facing elimination at least once. In addition to this, participating in the Play-In means more mileage on its players and less rest, opening the doors for injuries and fatigue. Although the Timberwolves are matched up better, at least on paper, against potential Play-In teams, anything can happen in do-or-die situations.
But should the Timberwolves survive the Play-In, that means setting up a date against one of the top two teams in the West. While the Houston Rockets would be beatable for Minnesota, drawing the Oklahoma City Thunder will be a different story. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder have been a tough code to crack all season long. While they have split their games against the Thunder at 2-2, SGA has dominated the Wolves defense. In fact, he averages 35.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game when pitted against the Timberwolves. Furthermore, Oklahoma's defensive schemes have been a nightmare for Minnesota's offense.
On the bright side, the Wolves' remaining games are winnable, favoring them to stay in the top six. However, the margin of error is still relatively small, as the Clippers and Grizzlies are still within striking distance. For now, Minnesota must make it a goal to catch the playoff bus without going through the Play-In Tournament.