The Arctic experienced record high temperatures this winter as warming accelerated again and is now running seven times faster in the North Barents Sea than the rest of the world, researchers have found. Catastrophic damage to Russian infrastructure worth over a quarter of a trillion dollars is now locked in, even if the Paris Accord targets are hit on time.
In January, some regions, particularly between northern Greenland and the North Pole, recorded temperatures up to 12°C above normal, caused by significant reductions in sea ice cover. On March 22, 2025, Arctic sea ice reached its lowest maximum extent since satellite records began 47 years ago, covering only 14.33mn square kilometres – 1.31mn square km below the 1981-2010 average and 800,000 square km less than the previous record low in 2017.
Catastrophic damage already locked in
Melting permafrost will damage 69% of the infrastructure in Russia’s frozen wastes by 2050, causing $275bn worth of damage and affecting the lives of over 3.6mn people, a new study published in Nature reports.
Over two thirds (69%) of current Arctic infrastructure is in areas where permafrost is expected to thaw by 2050, which includes homes, roads, railways, airports, industrial facilities and part of Russia’s vast gas pipeline infrastructure.
A third (33%) of that infrastructure is located in high-risk zones, “where thawing could seriously damage the ground’s ability to support buildings and transport systems.”
Nearly 4mn people live in these permafrost zones, and “by mid-century, about 3.6mn of them could be affected by infrastructure damage.”
A Finnish study found that even if the Paris temperature rise targets were met at this late stage, it is already too late to prevent the melting of the permafrost, as the coming catastrophe is now “locked in.”
"Our analysis reveals that substantial cuts in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions now would not make a large difference for infrastructure risks in the highest hazard area by 2050,” Professor Jan Hjort of the Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu in Finland, et al, wrote in a paper entitled “Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century” published by Nature.
Arctic warming accelerating
The Arctic, and particularly the northern regions of Russia, has been experiencing some of the fastest rates of warming on Earth and recent research has found that the rate has accelerated from twice as fast as the rest of the world in 2020 to the current seven-times faster, a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification.”
Updated satellite observations and climate model analyses have shown the pace of the warming is accelerating due to positive feedback loops. Bare ground absorbs sunlight more easily, while retreating glaciers mean there is less snow cover to reflect sunlight back into space.
And even before the permafrost completely melts, the Arctic region is already emitting more CO₂ than it is absorbing, according to research released last year.
A 2022 study published in Nature revealed that the Arctic has warmed four times faster than the global average over the past 40 years.
Other recent research suggests parts of the Arctic, especially around the Barents Sea and Siberian coast, are warming up to seven times faster than the global average.
Northern Russia, including regions in Siberia, has experienced record-breaking temperatures in recent years.
In 2020, the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk recorded a temperature of 38°C, the highest ever observed north of the Arctic Circle. That same year, parts of Arctic Russia were reported to be 6°C above average for extended periods.
The Russian Arctic as a whole has warmed by more than 3°C since 1970, far exceeding the global average rise of around 1.2°C over the same period.
The rate of warming has accelerated since the early 2000s, largely due to feedback loops such as the loss of sea ice, snow cover and thawing permafrost.
Permafrost thaw will hurt Russia badly
Russia is especially vulnerable to melting ice in the northern regions. Around 45% of oil and gas fields in the Russian Arctic are in high-hazard thaw areas. Thousands of kilometres of pipelines, including the ESPO oil pipeline and gas lines from the Yamal gas fields, are at risk. Even the proposed Power of Siberia 2 (POS2) that will connect the Yamal fields in the Arctic to China will have to run across regions of melting permafrost, making construction extremely complicated.
Railways are also in danger: parts of the Qinghai-Tibet and Obskaya-Bovanenkovo lines run through thaw-prone zones.
Moreover, around a dozen mining cities and settlements are in the high risk regions. As the frozen ground is too hard to dig for foundations, buildings are typically built on top of piles driven into the ice. Once the ice melts these structures are expected to fall over or be otherwise damaged.
The rate of warming has accelerated since the early 2000s, largely due to feedback loops such as the loss of sea ice, snow cover, and thawing permafrost.
Feedback loops
Several key feedback mechanisms are driving this acceleration. According to to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
Sea ice decline: As ice melts, darker ocean water is exposed, absorbing more sunlight instead of reflecting it – this process enhances warming.
Snow cover loss: Similar to sea ice, declining snow cover reduces the albedo effect, increasing surface absorption of solar energy.
Permafrost thaw: Thawing permafrost releases GHGs like methane and carbon dioxide, which contribute further to warming.
Changes in atmospheric circulation: Shifts in the jet stream and polar vortex can also transport warm air into Arctic latitudes more frequently.
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (2021) stated clearly that “the Arctic amplification is not only real but also underestimated in earlier models.”
The latest IPCC estimates say that the 1.5C Paris temperature rise target has already been missed as well as the upper recommended limit of 2C. Under current policies temperatures are set to rise by 2.7C-3.1C by 2100, with disastrous consequences.
Only 11 developed countries have reduced emissions and none of those are anywhere close to hitting their Paris accord obligations to prevent global temperatures rising more than 1.5C. That is the conclusion of scientists in a study published in the Lancet.
Efforts to reduce emissions have failed, which are currently at record highs and continue to accelerate.