While Colts general manager Chris Ballard isn’t known for dishing out big paydays to outside free agents like he did this time around, his ability to maximize draft capital has always been his saving grace. Not only that, it’s been the basis of his roster construction throughout his tenure in Indianapolis, for better or worse.
Ballard’s hit rate in the NFL Draft almost varies by position and round. He has showcased an ability over the years to hit on offensive linemen and linebackers while struggling to find gold when it comes to pass rushers. The Colts have drafted wide receivers well on Day 2 (rounds 2-3) whereas they’ve struck out on cornerbacks for the majority of Ballard’s tenure.
But how has Chris Ballard fared in the first round of the draft, particularly as of late? Taking a shot on any quarterback in the first round screams both patience and desperation and somewhere in the middle is where this Colts organization currently sits in regard to third-year quarterback Anthony Richardson.
No matter how you shake it, the inclusion of a quarterback in a ‘how well have you drafted’ discussion, especially one who is still developing through their rookie contract, is a heavily weighted addition that will only sway the aggregate one way or the other.
Pro Football Focus recently presented an exercise that attempts to quantify first-round draft selections into an aggregate score of sorts that provides value over a multiple-year sample size.
Using PFF’s grading system coupled with its version of baseball’s popular Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) statistic, these barometers allowed a big-picture look at how each NFL team has drafted in the first round based on relative success in the league. The definition of WAR, by MLB’s standards, “WAR measures a player’s value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position.”
Pro Football Focus also provided a caveat that confirms the aforementioned notion of a quarterback’s play mightily swaying the pendulum, saying, “With the caveat that WAR totals are heavily tied to quarterback success, we can determine which teams have added the most and least value above replacement-level players over the past five first rounds of NFL drafts.”
With that being said, PFF deemed the Colts the 5th-worst first-round drafters since 2020.
As you can see from the list, quantity can naturally both help or hurt you, but its weight matters more within the quality aspect.
For example, the Los Angeles Rams are the third-worst in the NFL at drafting in the first round since 2020 according to PFF’s exercise. However, they’ve only drafted in the first round once in that same timeframe, yet a one-year player like Jared Verse performed so well as a rookie that he is single-handedly keeping the Rams from bottom-two contention.
Inversely, the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans were deemed the two worst drafters by PFF’s list, and that checks out considering they’ve drafted each year since the exercise began, but their selections haven’t blossomed into what they envisioned.
When it comes to the Indianapolis Colts, almost all aforementioned factors for this exercise play their own part.
First and foremost, you have a rocky two-year career to show for quarterback Anthony Richardson. After a season-ending injury as a rookie which was followed up by an inconsistent sophomore campaign, Richardson’s back is against the wall heading into year three.
This short career thus far, of course, weighs the most of the Colts three first-round picks to analyze. Then you add in the four-year career of defensive end Kwity Paye where the overall aggregate score is improved, but not by much. Finally, second-year defensive end Laiatu Latu is fresh off of his rookie season, and given that he didn’t have a DROY-winning showing as his classmate Jared Verse did, his efforts weren’t enough to move the needle enough to get the Colts out of the bottom five on said list.
As alluded to with both the Rams and Colts, a lack of draft selections changes the formula, making it extra difficult to improve the aggregate as each pick must make up for a lacking pick in a separate draft. Pro Football Focus mentions just that within their exercise, saying, “Indianapolis is a perfect example of a team that hasn’t made many picks and drafted a quarterback early who has yet to pan out.”
As far as quantifying the traded away draft picks for the Colts (2020/2022) into the aggregate score, they almost make out as a wash entirely. Trading the 14th overall pick in the 2020 draft to bring in DT DeForest Buckner was easily one of Chris Ballard’s best moves during his tenure in Indy, while he followed this achievement up with an equally bad one by trading out a conditional second-round pick that turned into a 2022 first-round pick for quarterback Carson Wentz.
The Colts haven’t been the best at drafting in the first round under general manager Chris Ballard, but they surely haven’t been the worst, or one of the worst for that matter. Since 2020, the hit rate has certainly fallen from the first half of Ballard’s tenure (2017-2019), but the jury is still out on a couple of players.
The future of this regime essentially rests on Anthony Richardson’s young shoulders, and while Richardson has his end of the bargain to uphold, so does Ballard and Co. as they finish up what could be their last offseason with the Indianapolis Colts.