Tip-off: 8:30pm @ Paycom Center, Oklahoma City | Broadcast: TNT
⚡Now or never?
The Thunder were off yesterday, but had a bad night at the draft lottery. OKC did not draw the Sixers' top-6 protected pick, and some Western Conference foes got richer. Dallas won the 2025 NBA Draft lottery, and will almost surely select Cooper Flagg and enjoy a soft landing from the Luka Doncic trade. The Spurs landed the #2 and #14 pick, giving them the opportunity to add an elite long-term piece next to Victor Wembanyama and/or trading from their draft stash to acquire a win-now star like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Thunder still have a healthy pool of assets and the most proven young players on their roster, but the luxury window to out-bid and out-patience the rest of the league is officially closed. The postseason before them is always the best chance at a title. But the 2025 NBA Playoffs, with no Luka, Wemby, LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Sengun, or sadly, Jayson Tatum, remaining, could be the Thunder's easiest path to a chip during Shai's prime (if they can get past Nikola Jokic, which is proving to be a not-so-easy-task).
⚡Good ugly
The 2-2 series record and clutch play consternation has masked some of the great things OKC is doing, specifically on defense. Nikola Jokic is shooting 39.1% (!) for the series and averaging 5.8 turnovers per game. The Nuggets were a top-5 offense this season, but are sporting what would be a league-worst ORTG (102.9) against the Thunder.
The Thunder have struggled on offense, but not as much as they've dominated on defense. Late-game failures aside, they are playing like they can and will hold their opposition to a miserable, grinding offensive experience throughout the playoffs, just as they did throughout the regular season. David Adelman is essentially playing a 6-man rotation, and on Sunday they appeared to be running on fumes. The aggression and energy of the Thunder defense is paying off, and Denver isn't getting any fresher.
⚡Caruso Closure?
Mark Daigneault has been called both too rigid and too cute with his decision-making in the playoffs. And it wouldn't be the Thunder if we weren't arguing about who to play when in the 2-guard spot. The most recent lever pulled by Daigneault was a success: sitting Lu Dort for the entire fourth quarter for Alex Caruso as the Thunder took control of Game 4. Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins excelled as the role player heroes of Game 4, combining to go 8-14 from three while the rest of the Thunder went 2-27 from distance.
Only two of the Thunder's top 10 lineups played have a negative net rating for the series, and both feature one or both of Dort and Caruso. But the Thunder starters don't have their regular season juice, and the team has had a 92.1 DRTG with Dort off the court, 15.5 points worse than they've defended with Dort on the floor. Dort is the dead zone on offense, the weakest link left open to chuck (he was 2-10 from three in Game 4) and limited in his ability to move the ball and attack the defense in other ways. And if his perimeter defense is redundant with the skills and switch-ability available with Caruso and Wallace, it makes sense to elevate them in the rotation. Hopefully Diagneault remains flexible with the guard rotation.
⚡Bonus Thing : Bad Russ
As I wrote yesterday, Russell Westbrook has become a Thunder postseason fixture, as an opponent. Westbrook is now a veteran playoff journeyman, playing against OKC more than all but three other active players.
Thankfully, he's been bad.
[Bad Russ is Playing for Denver
It feels weird, but Russell Westbrook has become one of the Thunder’s biggest postseason rivals.
](https://www.dailythunder.com/bad-russ-is-playing-for-denver/)
The Nuggets have been better on both ends when Westbrook sits, -23.1 points worse overall by NRTG when he plays. He's been strong as an on-ball defender, but has also fouled like crazy (he's averaging 5 per game). Thanks to Denver's short rotation, Westbrook's struggles off the bench have the Thunder benefiting like never before from Bad Russ, the phenomenon.
⚡Prediction: Shai time. OKC 110 DEN 91
Shai has been steadying the Thunder ship all series, despite a drop in efficiency (his True Shooting has dropped to 57.1% in the semifinals, down from his elite 63.7% regular season mark). I expect a more familiar type of OKC win tonight, featuring stifling team defense and killer scoring from SGA.