Calvin Barrett is a writer, editor, and prolific Mario Kart racer located in Provo, Utah. Currently writing for SB Nation and FanSided, he has covered theUtah Jazz andBYU athletics since 2024 and graduated (woohoo!) from Utah Valley University.
I’ll be upfront and just say it: this sucks.
The Utah Jazz, after an agonizing 2024-25 season that tallied a mere 17 wins while bearing the crushing burden of 65 losses, saw their worst fears become harsh tangibility as they dropped from the top lottery odds to the 5th overall pick — sharing this unsavory reality with the last two years of the Detroit Piston’s assembly line of sadness.
I threw a pillow across the room in rage upon seeing Utah’s lottery results
In a draft class that boasts Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and Ace Bailey as the prizes, Utah’s drop to their worst-case scenario isn’t just a disappointment; it’s an excruciating nightmare.
I’ll admit that in my disgust, I threw a pillow across the room in rage upon seeing Utah’s lottery results — I am not above the rising outrage surrounding the NBA Draft Lottery, nor do I argue that it needs a drastic change. Let it all out, it’s ok.
Actual footage of my rage-powered outburst.
SpongeBob SquarePants, Giphy
In the frenzy, many voices have shouted their solutions for Utah’s failure. Some have suggested trading up in the draft order. Others may dream of storming Adam Silver’s office to demand a recount. But the theory that catches my attention the most is the declaration that this lottery shortcoming is the indicator that Utah needs to shift gears and revert to the original Jazz M.O.
That is to say, many believe the Jazz need to set their sights on the middle of the pack once more. Sign veterans, trade away draft picks, and just compete for wins once again.
Whether that is the right strategy for a team like Utah or not, I have to put my foot down on one point: falling to 5th does not mean the rebuild has failed. A setback? Sure. The end of the road? Not by a country mile.
Step Away From the Self-Destruct Button
As far as worst-case scenarios go, a team could do far worse than the fifth overall pick, though it’s a challenging reality to stomach when the odds suggested that 1-4 was both more likely and more favorable.
I feel like both Calvin and his mother in this panel right now.
Calvin and Hobbes
Here’s the good news, though. The 5th overall pick is still a highly valuable asset that could become one of the best prospects in the entire draft. Take a gander at some of the notable 5th picks in the last 25 years.
Darius Garland
Trae Young
De’Aaron Fox
DeMarcus Cousins
Kevin Love
Dwyane Wade
Good company.
To further discredit the argument that Utah needs a higher pick than 5, I feel it’s necessary to mention that busts happen. Every. Single. Year. And I’d argue that at least one of the players likely to be selected before the Jazz get a swing will not pan out as expected.
When LeBron, Anthony, Bosh, and Wade were all snagged in the top 5, Darko Milicic still found a way to be selected among four Hall of Famers. Markelle Fultz’s career derailed despite being the consensus number one pick over players like Tatum and Mitchell.
...busts happen. Every. Single. Year. And I’d argue that at least one of the players likely to be selected before the Jazz get a swing will not pan out as expected.
Here’s my point: even if Utah had the second, third, or fourth pick, the NBA Draft offers very few sure-thing superstars. Forgive me for blaspheming, oh elders of the internet hypersphere, but not even Cooper Flagg is exempt from disappointing.
Take a chance on the fifth pick. Tre Johnson, Derik Queen, Kon Knueppel, and their peers have the potential to pop in the pros. Not to mention the potential slides of players like Bailey or Edgecombe, who just might slide into Utah’s reach from an unpredictable draft night tumble.
Utah Mammoth Introductory Press Conference Danny Ainge is at the head of the rebuild.
Photo by Tyler Tate/Getty Images
The Freight Train Has Not Derailed
Freight train, freight train, run so fast
Freight train, freight train, run so fast
Please don’t tell what train I’m on
They won’t know what route I’m going.
-Freight Train by Elizabeth Cotten
Conductor Ainge is in the locomotive here at the Crossroads of the West, like it or not. And when one looks over his record as an NBA executive, one might notice an undeniable pattern: Danny Ainge built the foundation of a champion in Boston without a single number one pick.
Looking across the 2023-24 Boston Celtics roster, the large majority of the reigning champs’ depth chart is full of players either traded for or selected with lottery picks.
Jalen Brown was taken third overall in 2016 (viewed as an early selection), and Jayson Tatum was the third overall pick in 2017, though you could argue the Celtics traded down from the first pick, knowing their guy would be available two picks later.
The train hasn’t derailed, even though we can’t yet see where it’s heading.
Horford, White, Porzingis, and Holiday were all late add-ons obtained via trade after Ainge was out the door, but his asset accumulation set the Celtics on a championship path well before they reached a contending level. Utah, in turn, has built a tower of draft capital that could be used to acquire the right supplemental pieces down the road.
The Jazz could very well secure its Tatum or Brown equivalent in this upcoming draft, even from the fifth position. The train hasn’t derailed, even though we can’t yet see where it’s heading. To that point, the front office has reinforced the notion that this trajectory has been accounted for in their plans for the team.
Of course, I could be dead wrong about all of this. Just as the future is a mystery that could work in the Jazz’s favor, the opposite could just as likely be true. All I ask is that we keep the conspiracy theorizing and doomsday declarations to a minimum for the time being, and exercise patience in this trying era of the Utah Jazz’s franchise history.
It won’t get any easier, but now is not the time to let go.