With Jayson Tatum likely out for next season, there may be opportunities for Baylor Scheierman (left), who showed promise this season as a rookie.
With Jayson Tatum likely out for next season, there may be opportunities for Baylor Scheierman (left), who showed promise this season as a rookie.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
Perhaps as painful and devastating as Jayson Tatum’s injury in Monday’s Game 4 against the Knicks are the repercussions from that injury and the direction it could steer the Celtics over the next few years.
Tatum is expected to miss several months with a ruptured right Achilles’ tendon, a rare injury for someone of his age. Generally, NBA players have sustained the injury in the final years of their career. Considering Tatum is expected to miss the 2025-26 season, it could help accelerate the process of dipping below the second apron.
Tatum is unquestionably the Celtics most talented and coveted player and eventually will be the most expensive. But missing him in 2025-26 will knock them down a few notches and may be the impetus for a considerable rebuild as they prepare for the next few years.
President of basketball operations Brad Stevens loaded the roster with talent to win now and the Celtics appeared on the verge of defending their title before health issues and inconsistencies took over, especially in this series against the New York Knicks.
Boston enters Game 5 Wednesday down 3-1 without its best player, its second-best player battling knee issues and its one-time unicorn, difference-making center battling a virus that has plagued him for months.
The Celtics roster is aging and the goal was to attempt to squeeze one or even two championships out of it. But with Tatum gone next year, Jrue Holiday turning 35, Al Horford turning 39, Kristaps Porzingis in the final year of his deal and mounting luxury taxes, it may be time for a reboot.
There are a handful of teams ready to take the Celtics’ spot in the Eastern Conference, such as the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons, while the Knicks, Indiana Pacers, and Cleveland Cavaliers will also be contenders.
It’s no foregone conclusion that Stevens will start trading veterans, but with new ownership, the franchise has to find a way to get under the second salary cap apron. The Celtics will have to avoid the second apron – 134.4 percent above the salary cap — for three of the next four years to avoid a frozen draft pick — meaning they would be unable to trade their first-round pick seven years from now in 2032.
If they continue to live in the second apron, their picks could drop to the bottom of the first round as a further penalty, in addition to the exorbitant luxury taxes. When the Golden State Warriors won four titles in a seven-year span with a pricey roster, league owners implored for future penalties for higher-spending teams in the new collective bargaining agreement, hence the Celtics being caught up in second-apron hell.
It’s a difficult decision to reboot with Tatum out for next season but the first year of his super maximum salary begins next year at $54 million, raising the Celtics budget to an estimated $223 million next season if they return the same roster with no reductions and that doesn’t include additional luxury taxes.
The club eventually has to slice salaries, get under the apron and build a younger, cheaper roster around Tatum and Brown and there are opportunities to begin a youth movement. Baylor Scheierman showed promise late in his rookie season while JD Davison just signed a standard NBA contract after winning the G-League MVP. Jordan Walsh is a former second-rounder who has yet to get a chance to play consistent minutes while the club has worked with center Neemias Queta to eventually inherit a bigger role. The Celtics also have the 28th and 32nd overall picks to bring in even more prospects.
What Tatum’s injury has done is expedite the rebuilding process because Stevens built a win-now roster that was eventually going to have to be overhauled. The Celtics may have to take a step back in competitiveness in order to straighten out their financial situation and approach the second half of Tatum’s career with a true opportunity to be a perennial contender.
And as was revealed during Monday’s NBA draft lottery, tanking or stripping the roster offers no guarantees for high draft picks. The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets all punted this season with hopes of getting Cooper Flagg but the Dallas Mavericks, with a 1.8 percent chance, won the draft lottery.
Unfortunately for the Celtics, the new CBA was not designed to encourage teams to continue to invest loads of money on roster construction and pay three superstars maximum money. Stevens astutely squeezed the salaries of Porzingis and Holiday into the cap before he signed Tatum to the super max, fully realizing that the two- or three-year window was now.
This is not to say that the window is closed, but perhaps the opportunity to win a championship will be delayed for a year while Tatum rehabilitates from his injury and Brown grows into the team’s primary offensive option along with Derrick White. Porzingis or Holiday are the most likely to be moved because of their salaries and potential value to a win-now franchise. White signed what could be a below-market extension, given his production and earns a manageable $32.5 million in the final year of his contract in 2027-28, so he isn’t likely going anywhere.
But change is going to come in Boston and the unfortunate Tatum injury has forced the Celtics to assess their rosters, their finances, and their short- and long-term future perhaps sooner than expected.
Gary Washburn is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at gary.washburn@globe.com. Follow him @GwashburnGlobe.