Half of all marriages end in divorce but the success rate between football clubs and their owners is even lower – and Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s relationship with both Man United and OGC Nice is on the rocks.
The honeymoon period for Ineos at Old Trafford was short-lived. Sir Jim Ratcliffe has married into a noble football family, but it’s a messy, long-distance throuple
The Glazers, nouveau riche from the United States, have squandered the family fortune and forced Ratcliffe to sell Manchester United’s fine china and fire the help to restock the privy purse.
Day-to-day affairs at the palace meanwhile have fallen into disarray, with house administrator Ruben Amorim trying to restore courtly order.
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images
Okay, it’s a lazy metaphor, but you take the point. United’s new-look ownership has been more of a tragicomedy than a romance since Ratcliffe bought 28 per cent of the Red Devils in February 2024.
Amorim’s side have the chance to snatch triumph from the jaws of disaster in Bilbao in just over a week’s time, with Tottenham their opponents in the highest-stakes United final in a generation.
The Europa League trophy and the backdoor entrance to the Champions League which it would deliver could be United’s salvation in terms of both prestige and prize money this season.
United could ease their Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) issues, reduce concern about the Glazers’ debt and boost Amorim’s summer transfer budget – all despite a historically bad Premier League season – if they beat Spurs at San Mames.
Manchester United gross debt chart from the Glazers' leveraged buyout to present day
Manchester United’s gross debt over the years Credit: Adam Williams/United in Focus/GRV Media
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At Ratcliffe’s other club, Ligue 1 outfit OGC Nice, the situation is completely inverted.
Despite being on track for their best league placing since Ineos’ takeover in 2019, Nice are facing financial disaster through no fault of their own.
Ratcliffe’s attentions meanwhile are fixed squarely on United.
Ligue 1 TV deal collapse is blessing in disguise for Man United co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe
Validating reports in France earlier in the month, the UK press reported last week that Ratcliffe is exploring the sale of Nice.
The billionaire, who is based in nearby Monaco for tax purposes, paid £89m for Nice back in 2019 but has handed over operational control to a blind trust this season to satisfy UEFA’s conflict-of-interest rules.
A consortium from Saudi Arabia is reportedly interested, with Ineos said to be valuing the club at £200m.
While that price would probably only get you around four per cent of Man United, who are valued at closer to £5bn, that would be an impressive markup.
Chart comparing the value growth of Man United compared to other clubs in the 'Big Six' superimposed over a general image of Old Trafford
Manchester United club value infographic prepared by Adam Williams for GRV Media and United in Focus Photo by Harriet Massey/Newcastle United/Getty Images
It would also remove any conflict-of-interest concerns if United and the French club end up playing in the Champions League together next term.
The elephant in the room, however, is the collapse of French football’s TV deal.
“The French football industry is in crisis,” says University of Liverpool football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire, speaking exclusively to UIF.
The broadcaster DAZN has terminated its £1.7bn five-year media rights deal with Ligue 1 after just one year, citing the lack of anticipated subscriber take-up off the back of the agreement.
“They are now going to do their own streaming service,” explains Maguire, “which will be observed with interest by the Premier League and others here.
“They will be looking to see what works and what doesn’t. I don’t think you want to be first mover here – let someone else do it and make the errors. Then, copy it with the bad bits removed yourself.
“Regardless, though, this is clearly a disaster for Nice and for French clubs in general.”
How will Nice sale affect Man United?
Ratcliffe’s relationship with the Nice fanbase has soured somewhat, with supporters understandably irked by being treated as a secondary to Ratcliffe’s top priority in Manchester.
And Maguire believes that, in terms of both the man-hours and financial resources that Ineos have invested in Nice, a clean break may be best for both parties.
For United in particular, the Price of Football author predicts that the sale could open new horizons: “I think there are so many things to deal with at United that there is a case for saying that everything should be aimed at turning around that club.
“Therefore, having Nice as a distraction isn’t ideal. Ratcliffe has lots of distractions at present. His other sports investments have not necessarily been successful. Ineos itself has broader operational issues that it has to deal with too.
“Running two football clubs might mean they are spreading themselves too thin. I think in that sense it could completely change the way he looks at United post-sale.
Red Devils abandoning multi-club model
The multi-club model, i.e., uniting several clubs under the same ownership umbrella, is the go-to approach for most blue-chip football investors these days.
Infographic explaining the multi-club ownership model, with United in Focus logo
Multi-club ownership infographic Credit: Adam Williams/United in Focus/GRV Media
Over half of the clubs in the Premier League are part of some form of multi-club network.
For Maguire, however, the benefits of the model – which its advocates say are player development pathways, resource sharing and cost pooling – are overrated.
“The benefits of the multi-club operation look really good on PowerPoint, but forget what the eggheads say, I can’t think of a single successful multi-club network in practical terms,” he says.
“Maybe Red Bull, but we don’t know how successful that has been because the football clubs get folded into the Red Bull accounts as a whole.
“I think a lot of clubs have followed the crowd here when the benefits are dubious.”
Ineos’ £200m OGC Nice takeover target: Is it achievable and what impact will it have on United?
For Ineos, an extra £200m in the bank would not go amiss, especially at a time when cash flow from their core operations – i.e., their chemicals business – is hurting.
But with their main revenue stream decimated and the belief in football as an asset class shaken generally, is that number achievable? And, more importantly, what might it mean for Ruben Amorim and the people on the ground at United?
Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images
Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images
For context, Newcastle United’s takeover 2021 was worth £305m. More recently, the deal that saw Dan Friedkin buy Everton last December valued the club as an enterprise at around £450m.
OGC Nice’s revenues are a fraction of both of those clubs’, while their international brand is also far more modest. None of these sides are profitable as it stands, but there is far more upside in the Premier League.
Most people that UIF speaks to in the football finance industry are highly sceptical that Ineos will be able to justify their £200m valuation.
Regardless, whatever they get for the club, it could benefit United.
“Liquidity is low for Ratcliffe at present,” says Maguire, “and access to free capital can only be a good thing for Ineos.”
While PSR is an issue for United, so too is cash flow. To fund any expenditure in the summer, United first need access to cash itself. The club has forecast that its core business is expected to be strong this season, but much of that revenue will be absorbed by operating losses.
How much United spend in the summer therefore may rely on to what extent Ratcliffe can underwrite those losses. A nine-figure sum for the Nice sale could theoretically be reinvested in United, either via a share issue or low-interest loans.