The San Antonio Spurs are selecting in the top four of the NBA Draft for the third year in a row. Luck was on their side once again as they jumped from eighth to second in a draft heavily considered to be headlined by four top-tier prospects. After grabbing Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle in previous seasons, the Spurs can draft another key piece of their growing young core.
Dylan Harper has been considered the second-best prospect in the draft behind Cooper Flagg all year long. While Flagg grabbed headlines, Harper also had a stellar freshman season at Rutgers. Despite his team’s struggles, Harper averaged 19.4 points and 4 assists on 48.4% shooting, earning him an All-Big Ten honorable mention and a spot on the Big Ten all-freshman team. It’s hard to pin Rutgers’ disappointing 15-17 season on Harper or his top-5 draft prospect teammate, Ace Bailey. The team’s overall talent level did not rise to the level of a stacked conference.
Despite a less-than-ideal context, Harper had a super productive season. The big combo guard is the son of former NBA player Ron Harper and has been compared to NBA superstars like James Harden and Cade Cunningham. He brings a combination of finishing, ball-handling, scoring, and playmaking in the pick-and-roll with the size to play multiple positions. While there may be concerns about his positional overlap with the Spurs roster, his combination of skills and potential will make him tough to pass on when San Antonio’s on the clock on draft night.
Dylan Harper, freshman combo-guard, Rutgers
Measurements: 6’4.5 (no shoes), 213 lbs, 6’10.5 wingspan
2024-2025 stats: 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4 assists, 48.4% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 75% FT, 54.6% EFG
Player comparison: Big Jalen Brunson
Strengths
Harper is a rare prospect who could be an offensive engine in the NBA. He’s an elite finisher at the basket, shows prowess in the pick-and-roll, has a good handle, shows a high basketball IQ, and plays the game at his own pace with some stellar footwork. He exploded for major scoring performances like a 36-point game against Notre Dame and 37 points against Alabama.
Projecting his ability to run an NBA offense is most clear when watching him operate the pick-and-roll. Harper is capable of beating defenses in a number of ways in the action. When he was doubled at Rutgers (which happened a lot) he was excellent at quickly splitting the double team to get to the basket, or passing the ball out of it to find a teammate for a bucket, or to avoid a turnover and keep the ball moving. He’s a drop defense killer, attacking big men in space with his ability to change pace or use fakes and pivots around the paint to get shots over and around rim protectors. His assist numbers won’t jump off the page, but Harper made some high-level reads in the pick-and-roll as a freshman.
The most exciting part of Harper’s offensive game is his finishing around the basket. He converted 67.6% of his shots around the rim this season. Those are numbers you’d typically see with a big man. He’s creative using both hands to find angles to flip the ball up and in. He uses his size and strength well to go through weaker defenders. A lot of his finishes around the basket remind me of Jalen Brunson, but in a bigger body. While Harper isn’t an explosive athlete who will put defenders through the basket like Castle does with the Spurs, he does show some decent burst getting straight to the rim off of one-dribble drive.
It’s evident that Harper is a smart basketball player. Despite his high usage rate in college, he had a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio (would have been much higher had his teammates converted more easy looks) and posted a 12.7 turnover rate, which would have been better than both Castle and Chris Paul this season. It’s rare to see him make the wrong decision offensively, or settle for a bad shot. He can manipulate or bend the defense with his ball-handing or positioning on offense. While he didn’t get the chance to do it much, he showed a few good flashes of cutting and relocating to the right spots off the ball. Defensively he’s an active communicator that you can sometimes hear barking at his teammates on the broadcast.
He’s not known as a sharpshooter, but Harper was an effective catch-and-shoot jump shooter this season. He knocked down 37% of his catch and shoot jumpers. His lefty form is smooth and replicable, even if its a little flat and lacking some elevation in his bottom half.
Weaknesses
Harper is oh-so-close to having the total package as a go-to scorer. Unfortunately his pull-up jump shot is pretty far off from being passable. Harper was short on a lot of his pull-ups from both mid-range and deep. He had just .54 points per possession on pull-ups in the mid-range. His footwork on those shots is fairly inconsistent, and his balance is way off. He knocked down a couple of advanced step backs from all ranges that should make teams optimistic that he’ll one day develop some consistency on those types of looks.
It’s a mixed bag defensively for Harper. He’s not an aggressive defender on and off the ball. Don’t expect him to create a lot of turnovers or lock down the opposing teams best player. He can sometimes be late on a rotation or get caught ball or man watching, like any other young player. He’s big and strong enough to hold his own, and could very well end up guarding 1 through 3 at the next level. Harper has the tools to be a plus-defender at the next level, but he was inconsistent in his freshman season.
Much like some of the stars he’s been compared to, Harper isn’t a super athlete. He’s not slow or ground bound, but you won’t see him using his sheer athleticism to create opportunities for himself. He’s got average lateral speed, which means quicker guards may be able to catch him if he’s out of position in the NBA. He can make up for some of this on both ends with size and IQ, but his athleticism will be a factor.
Harper needs some work as an off-ball player, and he didn’t get a lot of reps at Rutgers to improve that part of his game. When he found himself without the ball in his hands, he stood around a bit too much, waiting to get it back. He’ll need to be a more active mover and participant in the offense, especially if he goes to a team like the Spurs. He made some nice cuts this season, which points to that in a different context, he may perform better off the ball.
Spurs fit
When San Antonio got the second pick, the immediate concern was Harper’s fit in an already crowded back court. De’Aaron Fox and Castle are core parts of the Spurs’ future.
It’s an understandable conclusion to make. All three players are at their best with the ball in their hands (although you could argue Castle did a lot of work off the ball on cuts or straight line drives) and none of them are elite shooters yet. But the NBA Playoffs have shown that it’s okay to play multiple ball-handlers together, and the more players you have that can create their own offense, the better off you’ll be when defenses tighten up.
The Thunder play multiple guards alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, like Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Jalen Williams. The Pacers play Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard next to each other. Denver will run out Russell Westbrook, Jamal Murray and Christian Braun in the same lineup. The best teams in the league are playing multiple ball-handlers to make themselves harder for opposing defenses to cover.
San Antonio has always thrived with teams that featured multiple playmakers playing an unselfish, pass-heavy game. Harper, Fox and Castle would fit into that style of play. Harper has the size to play off guard, and potentially defend some wings in the NBA. While he didn’t get a ton of reps off the ball at Rutgers, his catch and shoot numbers, high feel for the game and cutting flashes make it seem like he could fit into the Spurs scheme. Is the fit ideal alongside Castle and Fox? Not exactly, but they all have the traits to play alongside other scoring guards.
Bottom line: the Spurs need more offensive talent. They are not at the point where they pass on a potential All-Star level scorer for a player with a “better fit.” Harper and Wembanyama could be an iconic scoring duo for years to come, and the Rutgers’ guard should benefit from playing alongside another stud lefty in Fox. If San Antonio drafts Harper, they’ll be surrounding Wembanyama with another creative, smart and exciting scorer.
Signs point to Harper being the Spurs’ choice with the number two pick. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony said he’s 99.9% sure San Antonio will select Harper with the second pick. Michael C Wright tweeted that the Spurs are happy with the second pick. If true, Harper should immediately help the Spurs get back into the playoffs, and give them an awesome scorer for years to come.