NEW YORK — The Celtics quest to repeat came to an ugly end on Friday night as the Knicks closed out a 4-2 upset series in Game 6 with a blowout win over Boston at Madison Square Garden. The rout combined with the season-ending ruptured Achilles for Jayson Tatum in Game 4 suddenly puts Boston’s offseason under the microscope as the team must retool while preparing to play at least a large chunk of next season without Jayson Tatum.
Brad Stevens and his staff understandably ran it back with this core after a title win. However, change was inevitable for this group this summer given the financial penalties coming down the pike. Trade talks involving core players on the roster were expected even before Tatum went down, per league sources.
The big question now is how drastic those changes become for a team that was underachieving this postseason even before Tatum went down in Game 4. A disappointing second round exit combined with some harsh financial and team-building penalties looming next year due to the revamped CBA will open the door for some bigger moves than anticipated. Let’s take a look at what Stevens currently has in place for next season and what types of changes could be on the horizon.
Celtics 2025-26 payroll
Jayson Tatum: $54.1 million
Jaylen Brown: $53.1 million
Jrue Holiday: $32.4 million
Kristaps Porzingis: $30.7 million
Derrick White: $28.1 million
Sam Hauser: $10 million
Payton Pritchard: $7.2 million
Baylor Scheierman: $2.6 million
Xavier Tillman: $2.5 million
Neemias Queta: $2.3 million
Jordan Walsh: $2.2 million (non-guaranteed)
Total salary: $227 million to 11 players
Expected salary cap for 2025-26: $154.6 million
Expected luxury tax line for 2025-26: $187.8 million
Expected second apron for 2025-26: $207.8 million
Free agents: Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Torrey Craig, JD Davison
Total: $227 million in payroll committed to 11 players
Luxury tax line: $187.8 million
Second apron: $207.8 million
TRADED PLAYER EXCEPTIONS
The Celtics do not have any and would not have access to any created as a second apron team currently. That would change if they fall below the second apron at some point this summer.
FREE AGENT SPENDING AVAILABLE
The Celtics will only have access to the veteran minimum contract as second apron team. They are currently $20 million over the second apron. However, if Boston does trim enough payroll to get under the second apron, they would get access to the taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency ($5.6 million).
WHAT ABOUT A DISABLED PLAYER EXCEPTION?
If a player is seriously injured, his team can apply for the disabled-player exception to replace him. An NBA-designed physician would have to determine that the player is “substantially more like than not” to be out through June 15 next season for it to be granted. The Celtics successfully applied for a DPE when Gordon Hayward went down with a season-ending ankle injury in 2018.
The Celtics obviously would not go down this path unless they were certain Tatum had to miss at least 12 months with a serious injury. There’s no replacing a superstar like Tatum for the Celtics and even being granted a DPE wouldn’t do much for Boston. Tatum makes $54.1 million next season but the max any team can be award for a DPE is the mid-level exception ($14.1 million) for next season. A team can use that on a single player via free agency (one-year deal max) or as a trade exception.
Given the repeater tax penalties involved, it’s no certainty that the Celtics would even use a DPE if granted without cutting major payroll to other parts of the roster. Boston would have until January 15 to apply for a DPE so they can wait awhile to see how Tatum’s rehab progresses. Due to that, this isn’t a tool I’d expect the Celtics to apply for this offseason.
DRAFT PICKS
The Celtics have two picks in the 2025 NBA Draft which will take place over two nights starting on June 25. Boston owns two selections, their first round pick at No. 28 and an early second-round pick at No. 32 (via Washington).
WHY DRASTIC CHANGES COULD BE ON THE HORIZON
The Celtics front office made a strategic push two years ago in the wake of a revamped CBA that made it much harder to keep costly teams together over the long term. Steep luxury tax penalties are set to kick in for Boston next season via the repeater tax and the team’s current spend is projected for nearly $510 million next year, a record-breaking total when factoring in payroll and repeater tax penalties. Knowing that, this specific Boston core was always going to have a two-year window ending this summer, per sources.
That $500 million plus spend wasn’t going to be a feasible spend for new ownership, even with Tatum healthy entering next year. Now that the All-Star will miss a large chunk of next season at a minimum with a torn Achilles, the time for change has come. How Stevens and his staff will go about that change will be intriguing as they attempt to retool themselves as a contender for Tatum’s eventual return while bringing down the payroll to a sustainable level.
There are a number of secondary core pieces (Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Sam Hauser) that are potential trade candidates but moving some of those deals will be easier than others with cutting salary looming as a priority. Hauser’s deal ($10 million next year) is manageable and could easily slide into a trade exception or mid-level exception for some team (so Boston wouldn’t have to take back salary). The same can’t be said for Boston’s bigger names.
The trade value of Porzingis (expiring deal at $30.3 million) was not helped by his playoff performance. It’s hard to consider him a positive trade asset this summer until his health situation resolves.
Jrue Holiday has three years left on his deal still and his offensive value was under utilized in Boston, the rising salaries on his remaining deal by year ($32.4 million, $34.8 million, $37.2 million) may cause some teams to balk since his play did drop off this year.
Ultimately, Boston can’t simply trade those big money deals for no financial return unless a team has ample salary cap space to absorb the trade. Currently, only Brooklyn is projected to have north of $30 million in cap room this offseason. More offseason wheeling and dealing around the league could change that, but that’s the reality now for Boston.
Teams under the first apron can take back $7.5 million more than they send out in any trade, so that could help Boston trim some salary off the books by dealing Porzingis or Holiday. From there, smaller deals would be likely if Boston can acquire multiple players making less money in a swap (example: Celtics trade Porzingis for a player making $13 million and a player making $11 million). Moving players on those smaller deals would become far easier to pull off in secondary deals with little to no money coming back for Boston.
Just how deep these payroll cuts go will also depend on Boston’s plans with their own current free agents. Horford and Kornet are both unrestricted free agents and both have strong interest in returning, per sources. Barring an extremely team friendly deal, further payroll trimming may be in order to clear the way for their returns, especially if getting under the second apron ($207 million) or luxury tax ($187 million) is a priority. Exploring something more drastic (testing Jaylen Brown’s trade market) could be considered as well if the team wants to dip under the tax entirely.
Ultimately, Stevens will have to weigh a litany of options to make this roster fit under whatever payroll constraints he is given. Whether he can put together a strong playoff team next year while trimming the payroll remains to be seen and largely depends on Tatum’s recovery timetable, which won’t be known for awhile. In the meantime, changes to Boston’s roster are coming as the window for this core group closes.