Based on its dominant regular season, Oklahoma City's status as the heavy favorite over Denver in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals makes plenty of sense.
But are oddsmakers giving too little respect to three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and a Nuggets team that raised the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2023? Sportsbooks are spotting Denver, which opened as a 7.5-point dog, as many as 8.5 points, and they're listed at +250 or longer on the moneyline.
Will Denver's championship experience prove to be worth more than the books think?
Or will MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the young, deep Thunder, plus a raucous crowd in OKC, be enough to knock off a Nuggets team that could be running on fumes in its second Game 7 in as many rounds?
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7 Betting Odds
The odds below are up-to-date as of Saturday morning, but they will likely change between now and tipoff.
DK FD bet365
DEN spread +8 (-112) +8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110)
OKC spread -8 (-108) -8.5 (-110) -8.5 (-110)
DEN ML +250 +270 +275
OKC ML -310 -335 -350
Total 213.5 (o-112; u-108) 213.5 (o-112; u-108) 213.5 (o-110; u-110)
How to Watch Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7
Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC
Nuggets-Thunder Game 7 Injury News: Aaron Gordon Questionable
One key question for the Nuggets is whether they'll have Aaron Gordon, who has been a massive piece of Denver's success in these playoffs.
He strained his left hamstring late in Game 6 on Thursday night. As of Friday night, Gordon was considered doubtful for Game 7, according to ESPN's Shams Charania and Tim MacMahon.
The Nuggets, who were thin even with Gordon in the mix, will have a much more uphill climb on Sunday if he's limited or unavailable.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7 Player Props
Christian Braun Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110 at bet365) -- 1 unit
It's hard to see Jokic and SGA not putting up huge numbers in this game. Value is hard -- if not impossible -- to come by on superstars in a massive Game 7 like Sunday's, though.
Assuming Gordon is out or ineffective due to his injury, the Nuggets will sorely miss his rebounding against Thunder bigs Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Gordon has been a solid rebounder throughout his career, and he averaged 9.2 boards per game in Games 1-6.
It's going to be tough for Jokic, who is averaging 14.7 rebounds per game in this series, to do more on the glass than he already is. That means Braun, who has grabbed 7.3 rebounds per game in this series, will need to once again step up after finishing Game 6 with 23 points, 11 rebounds and five assists.
The 24-year-old Braun, one of the best athletes at coach David Adelman's disposal, could end up staying on the court for all but a couple minutes, especially if Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook continue to struggle.
After grabbing at least seven boards in four of the five competitive games we've seen in Denver-OKC (excluding the Thunder's Game 2 romp), including a 13-rebound night in Game 1, Braun is a great bet to pull down at least seven rebounds.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7 Pick, Best Bets
I'd really like to pick the Nuggets here after backing them against the Clippers and in Games 5 and 6, but the mounting injuries strike me as too much for them to overcome on Sunday.
Out of nowhere, Denver got excellent minutes from Julian Strawther off the bench in Game 6, and Peyton Watson made some big defensive plays to offset his 1-for-7 shooting night. But unless Westbrook suddenly breaks out of his series-long slump, Denver is just too shorthanded beyond Jokic and Murray -- who I expect to both have huge games -- to pull this off.
It's possible that Gordon will suit up and play well and Porter Jr. will come through as well, but there are just too many question marks throughout the Nuggets rotation for me to pick them here.
The Thunder have gotten consistently excellent play from SGA, but their role players struggled in Game 6. On Sunday at home, I expect Holmgren, Hartenstein, All-Star Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and the rest of the Thunder's deep rotation to collectively make enough plays to pull out Game 7.
Williams in particular, who is coming off a 3-for-16 night with three turnovers, feels due for a big bounce-back game.
While I like the Thunder to win at home, I don't think Jokic, Murray and the Nuggets will go quietly. So, let's go with Denver to cover in a high-scoring game. In addition to the Nuggets on the spread, I also like the Over and OKC to go over its team total, as the Thunder should try to run and force the shorthanded Nuggets into a high-possession track meet.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7 Best Bets:
Nuggets +8.5 (-110 at bet365) -- 0.5 units
Over 213.5 (-110 at bet365) -- 0.5 units
OKC Team Total Over 110.5 (-115 at DraftKings) -- 0.5 units
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This story was originally published May 17, 2025 at 8:59 AM.