First of all, congratulations to Crystal Palace (and their supporters, such as our own Crunchie) on their first-ever major trophy success – ignoring the 1990/91 Zenith Data Systems Cup.
Us being the Buzz Killingtons that we are, our first thought is about the possible implications of the Eagles’ 1-0 win over Manchester City at Wembley.
More specifically, the race for eighth.
IF MAN CITY HAD WON THE FA CUP…
Had Pep Guardiola’s side won the FA Cup, eighth place in the Premier League would have been enough for UEFA Conference League football.
The top five (and one of Tottenham Hotspur/Manchester United) would have qualified for the UEFA Champions League, with positions sixth and seventh heading through to the UEFA Europa League.
We’re assuming, for the purposes of this example and to avoid getting too bogged down in extraneous detail, that Newcastle United finish in the top six.
NOW THAT PALACE HAVE WON…
The Eagles, 12th in the Premier League, have now nabbed one of the Europa League spots (Nathaniel Clyne, coming to an airport near you) as a result of their FA Cup success.
So only sixth in the Premier League will get Europa League football, with seventh heading for the Conference League.
Whoever finishes in eighth gets nothing.
Unless…
HOW EIGHTH PLACE CAN STILL GET EUROPE…
So far as we understand it, there is one just-about-plausible scenario that could yet see eighth place get Conference League football.
This would hinge on Chelsea finishing seventh and winning this season’s Conference League final against Real Betis. That’s on Wednesday 28 May, three days after the Premier League season ends.
Conference League success is rewarded with a spot in next season’s Europa League.
So, in this situation, positions 1-5 (plus Spurs/Man Utd) would qualify for the Champions League, with Palace, the sixth-place Premier League team and Conference League winners Chelsea in the 2025/26 Europa League.
That would mean eighth place does, after all, get Conference League football next season.
For any of this to still be possible, Nottingham Forest realistically have to win their next two games (and definitely their Gameweek 38 clash with Chelsea). Aston Villa, Man City and Newcastle also have to finish above the Blues.
WHO IS IN THE RUNNING FOR EIGHTH?
Before their Gameweek 37 fixtures have been played, four teams are still in the running for eighth.
Fulham and Bournemouth could drop out of the running before the final day, depending on results over the next few days.
WHY DOES IT MATTER IN FPL?
Having Conference League football (or not) to play for may have little bearing on how Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth and Fulham fare on the final day.
Motivated to perform? Unshackled by any pressure concerning finishing position? The ‘something/nothing to play for’ narrative can be spun either way.
You would, however, assume the managers of those respective clubs would go full strength with their line-ups in Gameweek 38 with European football to play for. Without that, there may be more of a concern over ‘expected minutes’.
All eyes on the London Stadium on Sunday…
Scout Notes from the FA Cup final will follow later