Football writer Alex Keble assesses the race for UEFA Champions League places as the season heads into its final week.
The scrummage that broke out in the dying seconds of Arsenal’s 1-0 victory over Newcastle United summed up a scrappy and nervous affair at Emirates Stadium, and highlighted the mounting tension in a UEFA Champions League race that will now go to the wire.
Arsenal are safe, their win today confirming a top-five finish and almost certainly a third consecutive runners-up spot under Mikel Arteta. It also happens to be the first of those that never threatened to be more.
Their season debrief can begin now, and while there is no earnest inquiry, not after a Champions League semi-final appearance, Arteta knows he needs a big summer to get Arsenal title-ready.
"We had a dream to deliver a big trophy this season, and we haven't achieved that due to a lot of factors," said the Arsenal manager, in his post-match press conference.
"They [the board] always back the team in the best possible way, and it's not going to be different in the summer. Obviously we need players because the squad is really short, and on top of that, we are losing four or five players that end their contracts. We have to be very smart with the decisions that we take."
Beneath Arsenal, there's everything to play for as five clubs compete for the three remaining places in next season's Champions League.
Incredibly, only ONE point separates third place from seventh, an unprecedented scenario that sets us up for a wild final-day showdown.
Nottingham Forest have renewed confidence after beating West Ham United 2-1 while Newcastle will still back themselves to get the job done at home to Everton.
Further down, Manchester City need to avoid defeat to AFC Bournemouth on Tuesday to keep things in their own hands and Aston Villa need a favour or two. Neither played today, but both will be relatively happy with how their Sunday panned out.
Rice magic helps Arsenal all but secure runners-up spot
After an initial flurry of goalkeeping brilliance from David Raya and Nick Pope, Newcastle were marginally the better side in the first half at Emirates Stadium, thanks to Eddie Howe’s new 5-4-1/3-4-3 formation, the same system used to beat Chelsea 2-0 last weekend.
The rotations between Tino Livramento and Anthony Gordon seemed to overwhelm Arsenal down their right, with Bukayo Saka failing to get back when Newcastle countered, while the deep 5-4-1 block fought robustly against the home side's typically flat, U-shaped passing around the edge of the box.
All angles seemed covered – until Arsenal upped the tempo significantly after the break and found a chink in Howe’s new formation.
Saka and Gabriel Martinelli started making more aggressive infield runs, leading to waves of attack that brought Newcastle discomfort. While on the back foot, Gordon gave the ball away in his own half and Arsenal finally took advantage of Howe’s two-man midfield.
With Sandro Tonali pulled across, the one downside of a 3-4-3 – that it’s light on numbers in the middle – was exposed as Declan Rice rifled in the winner.
1-Rice-goal
There was relief for the Gunners at the final whistle, although the lack of creativity on display today aligned with the theme of their season.
Arsenal’s future under Arteta requires greater energy and improvisation in the final third, as well as fewer conservative passes and less reliance on set-pieces.
Their attacking stats are down significantly from last year. That has to change.
How Arsenal's attacking stats compare to last season (with PL rank)
Season Goals Shots xG xG on target
2023/24 91 (2nd) 657 (3rd) 77.5 (3rd) 68.6 (4th)
2024/25 67 (3rd) 523 (5th) 59.2 (6th) 62.4 (7th)
Newcastle may need a new strategy to beat Everton
Despite having won seven of their last 10 Premier League matches, Newcastle are only just in the top five, and could be there on goal difference alone if Man City get at least a point against Bournemouth on Tuesday.
Newcastle cannot take anything for granted, and certainly cannot assume Everton at home is a banker.
David Moyes’ side will defend deep and prove stubborn to break down, making Howe’s 3-4-3 formation the wrong fit for that particular challenge.
It has worked over the last two fixtures mainly because Newcastle have played on the break.
This is a problem. Howe’s 3-4-3 was designed mainly to cope with the loss of Joelinton and if he moves back to a 4-3-3, Howe will need to trust in Joe Willock, who is still recovering from an injury.
Whatever the system, to beat Everton, Newcastle will need more energy in central midfield than they mustered today, especially if, as Howe fears, Isak remains sidelined.
"He's got a bit of swelling in a muscle in his groin," Howe said. "He's only got seven days to get himself fit. Fingers crossed he can get there."
Forest’s win at West Ham is good preparation for Chelsea match
The showdown between Forest and Chelsea next Sunday is at the City Ground, and Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are still very much in the hunt for Champions League football after their 2-1 win at West Ham.
The simplicity of their success at London Stadium has prepared the ground nicely; a typical counter-attacking performance, led by the impressive Anthony Elanga, has restored order after Forest’s recent wobble.
They might have gone three Premier League home matches without a win, but all of those were against teams outside the top seven.
Forest prefer to be underdogs, sit deep, and pounce on the break. Thankfully for them, Chelsea will allow them to do just that on Sunday.
The path to victory is open, yet it still might not be enough to finish in the top five.
Seasons set to be defined by wide-open UCL race
It bears repeating: just a single point separates five clubs as we enter the final week of the season.
We’ve never seen anything quite like this before.
All five clubs have compelling reasons to believe a top-five finish is essential.
For Forest, an amazing campaign all comes down to this. To make it on the final day would be the fairytale story of the season and one of the great Premier League achievements.
Villa and Newcastle both need Champions League football to continue their ascent towards super-club status.
Man City cannot bear the thought of a trophyless season and then a year in the UEFA Europa League, which would ask fresh questions of Pep Guardiola’s ability to mount a comeback.
Chelsea have bought a lot of players and need to start making that investment pay with Champions League qualification.
For Man City and Chelsea in particular, missing out would barely be thinkable. For the other three, qualification would turn a good season into a magnificent one.
And to think it will all come down to the odd goal, to the odd mistake.
At this point it’s more or less a toss of the coin. For fans of all five clubs, that’s a terrifying thought.