Results over the penultimate weekend of the 2024/25 Premier League season have not gone Newcastle’s way.
Most importantly, we missed the chance to make sure of a top-five finish, losing 1-0 at Arsenal on Sunday, but that defeat came after vital wins for Aston Villa, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, with Man City due to play their game in hand at home to Bournemouth on Tuesday.
Results leave the table looking like this on Monday morning:
1. **Liverpool** – 83pts (+46 GD)
2. **Arsenal** – 71pts (+34 GD)
3. **Newcastle** – 66pts (+22 GD)
4. **Chelsea** – 66pts (+20 GD)
5. **Aston Villa** – 66pts (+9 GD)
6. **Man City** – 65pts (+24 GD)-
7. **Nottingham Forest** – 65pts (+13 GD)
It’s ridiculously tight and the data experts at Opta have released their updated final projections heading into the last week of the 2024/25 season.
Opta believe Newcastle will end the season in fourth, sealing a place in next season’s Champions League alongside Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Aston Villa.
Their latest projections back Man City to reclaim third place, with Pep Guardiola’s side still having two games left to play against Bournemouth (H) and Fulham (A) after their FA Cup commitments over the weekend.
However, they back Newcastle and Aston Villa to get the job done, suggesting Villa could go to Man Utd and win while Chelsea and Nottingham Forest battle it out at the City Ground on Sunday.
As Opta’s table shows below, their date experts rate our Champions League chances at 83.55%, with Man City at 85.90%, Aston Villa at 44.42%, Chelsea at 56.84% and Nottingham Forest as outsiders at 29.29%; although that would soon change if they beat Chelsea and Aston Villa failed to win at Old Trafford!
The situation for us is clear. Win and we’ve done it, while a draw would also be enough should Villa fail to beat Man Utd, as one of Chelsea and Forest will drop points and therefore be unable to catch us.
**Newcastle** – Everton (H)
**Chelsea** – Nottingham Forest (A)
**Nottingham Forest** – Chelsea (H)
**Aston Villa** – Man Utd (A)
**Man City** – Fulham (A)
(\*Man City play Bournemouth on Tuesday night in their game in hand)