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Bournemouth face tough battle at Manchester City

Written by BillyTheKid

After the Cherries disappointing home defeat against Aston Villa, which dented our chances of a European place, which now look over after the result at Wembley, our last away game of the season couldn’t be harder, with a visit to Manchester to play City, who will after losing at Wembley want to finish at home on a high in front of their fans. The game is on Tuesday at 8 pm. It’s also being shown live on Sky.

Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth

Man City Win

Man City Win

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Draw

Draw

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AFCB Win

AFCB Win

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Our team need one more goal to equal our highest goals for in the Premier League. The highest was in the 2018-19 season with GF 56. Going into this game our GF is 55, which is the same as our 2016-17 season. So another possible new club record for our team.

When our two sides met at Dean Court in November, Pep Guardiola’s side was at the top of the Premier League. But City suffered their first defeat in the league this season and also their first ever defeat against a Cherries team. It also turned out to be the start of a bad run of form and four league defeats for City, three of which were away.

Going into our game, Manchester City have been on an eight-game unbeaten run in the Premier League; their last defeat was back in March when they lost away against Nottingham Forest. At home since their defeat at Dean Court, they have won 8, drawn 2, lost 3. Away, they have won 4, drawn 4,

The last time our side visited the Etihad Stadium to play Manchester City was in November 2023, AFCB suffered their biggest defeat of the season and Andoni Iraola’s since being manager at AFCB, losing 6-1. The Manchester City scorers were Jeremy Doku, Bernardo Silva, with a brace, Manuel Akanji, Phil Foden and Nathan Ake. Our consolation goal came from Luis Sinisterra.

In all away league games against City, AFCB have W 0, D 1, L 9.

All competitions, AFCB have W 1, D 2, L 20.

Manchester City Team News

Rodri, Nathan Ake, John Stones and Oscar Bobb have all been out injured.

Manchester City Player To Watch

Erling Haaland has to be a threat, with 21 league goals this season. Also, Kevin De Bruyne, who will be playing his last home game for City. Scored twice and had an assist in his last five league games.

AFCB Team News

Alex Scott is our latest player to be out for the rest of the season with a fractured jaw.

AFCB Player To Watch

The two players who scored against City in the home game in November, Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson, are our main threat for goals. Justin Kluivert is another.

The Referee

Thomas Bramall is in charge of this game. He took our home game against Crystal Palace on Boxing Day.

Matt Stevenson added…

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Man C. They had only 2 home games (A Villa and Wolves) and two away games (Everton and Southampton). Man C have 3 wins and a draw (10 points), scoring 5 goals and conceding 1. That might be slightly more than expected, as A Villa had better chances and the Wolves game was close, although City were dominant against Everton and Southampton (although this was the drawn game). Their xG is 5.90 goals and xGc of 3.17.

Goals Xg.jpg

Man C have had 5 goal scorers with 1 goal each. Doku has 2 assists, with Matheus and Gundogan with 1 each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. In all games, Man C have a high number of players in the opposition half, and it is extreme in the Southampton game, where it was all but Ederson, who was also very high for a goalkeeper. There could be space in behind if we counterattack with pace.

Av Pos.jpg

The following plot compares the summary stats of Man C and AFCB over the last 4 games.

Generally, all statistics are in Man C’s favour, although both teams have had 7 big chances. Both teams have been relatively tight at the back, with Man City conceding 1 and AFCB 3 (in a run that has included Arsenal and Aston Villa). Man C have made 1 error leading to a chance, whereas AFCB have made 2.

Comparison.png

As expected, Man C have higher possession and pass completion percentages. The proportion of chances coming from set plays is relatively equal, which surprised me as Man C have been known for intricate passes rather than dead-ball prowess. The proportion of chances conceded from set plays is similar between the teams with AFCB conceding slightly more.

Percentages.png

Your say…

Hoof_It said…

On the permutations that see AFC Bournemouth qualify for Europe…

So we just need

Forest to beat Chelsea

And

Brentford and Brighton to get 2 fewer points than us

And

Man City to get at least a draw v Fulham

And

Villa to get at least a draw v Man U

And

Chelsea to beat Betis

Not so impossible when you say it out loud. – To join the conversation, please click here.

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