It hasn’t been 12 months since the Mavericks’ appearance in the 2024 NBA Finals, yet in that time, it feels like the franchise has encountered two decades’ worth of peaks and valleys. Dallas added its biggest free-agent acquisition in years with Klay Thompson shortly after the season ended, then Luka Doncic was traded in February, Kyrie Irving tore his ACL in March, and the Mavericks ended a miserable season by losing in the play-in tournament. But then the pendulum swung the other direction. The Mavericks won the NBA Draft lottery a week ago, and with it, the opportunity to select Cooper Flagg with the first pick in June.
It feels as if Mavericks fans are living their own version of that classic 30 Rock bit: “What a decade, huh?” “Lemon, it’s been 11 months.” Now a fanbase that had been in mourning since the Doncic trade has been gifted a new 18-year-old phenom to fawn over. With Dallas only having a 1.8 percent chance of winning the lottery, “miracle” doesn’t even do what transpired justice. What this means is that the Mavericks roster and trajectory have been shaken to their core yet again.
But just how does the team fit together this new puzzle piece? It’s certainly a more fascinating and hopeful outlook than the one I wrote about two months ago, when the Mavericks looked destined for irrelevance for a long time.
Jake Kemp already highlighted Flagg’s bona fides, so I’ll be brief about those: Flagg is a no-doubt first overall pick—maybe not at the same level of prospect as Doncic or LeBron James when those two were entering the draft, but not as far from that tier as you might think. Flagg is exceptionally young—he doesn’t turn 19 until December—and his growth has been remarkable from his early high school days. In one year’s time, he’s grown from being thought of as a defensive demon to two-way potential superstar after a freshman season at Duke that saw him win the Naismith Award as college basketball’s national player of the year. If you’re worried about Nico Harrison wanting to double down again on his win-now mantra and trading Flagg, much like I was in the immediate hours after the lottery ended, don’t be: ESPN’s Tim McMahon has reported fairly definitively that Mavericks governor Patrick Dumont will not allow Harrison to trade the pick, meaning the Mavericks will be selecting Flagg.
So, what does that mean for the roster? Well, a lot. Flagg is a legitimate wing athlete, with his measurements from the NBA Combine confirming what we all saw during his one season at Duke. He projects to swing between both forward spots at the 3 and the 4, and maybe in time he can masquerade as a small-ball 5 in spot situations once he fills out his 6-9 frame and gets stronger. Flagg isn’t an offensive hub just yet, although he got better handling the pick-and-roll as his season at Duke unfolded, but he’s an off-ball terror with connective passing capabilities. He has shown massive growth with his outside shot since his high school days, and he has smoothed out his form considerably. That said, defense is Flagg’s calling card, and he has impressive lateral quickness. Scouts have often described watching Flagg appear out of nowhere on defense, and his ability to rotate, recover, close out, and contest is excellent.
Here’s the thing, though: the Mavericks have a lot of centers and big wings, including Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, Anthony Davis. P.J. Washington, and Naji Marshall. You could even throw in Caleb Martin, who at 6-foot-5 plays more like a bigger wing. That’s a logjam even before you toss in Flagg, which means the Mavericks are almost guaranteed to make a trade this summer. They obviously need guard help as Irving is not expected to be ready until sometime in 2026 as he recovers from his ACL injury. If Dallas doesn’t alter its roster significantly, the starting lineup could be really weird—something like Thompson, Flagg, Washington, Davis, and Gafford or Lively. That doesn’t seem tenable, and it will be tough for Jason Kidd to manage egos as he decides which of those five hits the bench to get a true point guard on the floor. It doesn’t seem right that Flagg will go first overall and then come off the bench, but is Thompson ready for a bench role after how his time in Golden State ended? Can the Mavs have negative floor spacing with Flagg, Washington, Davis, and a center on the floor at the same time?
Those types of questions make it seem like a major trade is “when,” not “if.” From there it’s determining which pieces stay and which go. Gafford is entering the final year of his contract, and he reportedly expects to be paid like a starting center on his next deal. That could give Dallas an opportunity to move the 26-year-old for guard help, let Lively take over as the full-time starter, and then fill the backup gaps with a combination of Davis and minimum contracts, like maybe two-way sensation Kai Jones, who had an impressive audition this season.
That still leaves a bit of a clog if Davis expects mostly to play the 4 next to a center. (It’s hard to imagine Dallas starting Flagg, Washington, Davis, and Lively together.) Washington seems like the odd man out in this scenario, due to Harrison’s infatuation with Davis, as he made him the centerpiece of the return the Mavericks got for Doncic. Washington is also due for an extension soon, and cap-wise it makes a lot of sense to replace his next big pay day with Flagg’s cost-effective rookie contract.
There’s a strong argument to be made that trading Davis is actually the best option, factoring in his age, injury history, and the enormous amount of money he is owed now and on his next contract, which could potentially start as early as 2027 since Davis holds a player option for the 2027-2028 season. Davis is still good enough to return valuable pieces, whether that’s younger players that fit Flagg’s timeline or draft capital. Building around Flagg and Washington as the forwards with Lively at center doesn’t seem as precarious as the song-and-dance around Davis playing center or power forward. The problem is there is no reason to believe Harrison to ever move Davis out mere months after he ended the Doncic era to acquire him.
Maybe the Mavericks don’t need to solve this dilemma right away. They have been pretty clear they want to bully teams with big ball, and they can give the players they have a shot to start the season and reassess at the trade deadline. If so, it’ll be fascinating to watch a team try to maul everyone with four defensive bigs on the floor, interchangeably switching, rotating and swatting shots like crazy. When Lively, Davis, and Washington shared the floor this season, the offense was near league-average while the defense was elite, according to Cleaning the Glass. Sub Gafford in for Lively and the offense shoots up, but the defense drops way down. Both trios were positive, although the sample size is awfully small.
If the Mavericks sub in Flagg for Washington or maybe even Davis, there’s a path to Dallas forming the defense-first, physical identity Harrison has clearly wanted from Day 1 of his tenure. Offensively, Flagg will never be the factor Doncic was, but he probably doesn’t need to be. Before the trade, Kidd was coaxing Doncic to be more of an off-ball player, and the results were promising. Dallas most likely won’t need a heliocentric player if it has enough heady dribblers and passers. When Irving returns, Flagg can add to the connective style of play the team was leaning toward this season, with everyone on the floor maybe not an elite creator, but enough of a threat off the bounce to rotate and get defenses out of position. The foursome of Irving, Thompson, Flagg, and Davis might not have an elite creator, but that’s enough dribbling, shooting, and passing to bend defenses to their will. While Flagg isn’t a Doncic-level passer—I mean, who else is?—don’t forget when Kidd was coaching Milwaukee that he experimented with Giannis Antetokounmpo at point guard, helping develop him as a passer and creator. You could see Kidd doing something similar with Flagg.
The key will be the fifth player Kidd adds to that foursome, presuming the Mavericks do go with Davis over Washington long-term. Perhaps Kidd’s time in Los Angeles with Davis could offer a sneak preview of what’s to come—starting big and finishing with Davis at the 5. It’s what won the Lakers a title in 2020, and maybe it will give the Mavericks their second championship when Flagg is ready to take the leap. Perhaps it’s something we can’t even imagine yet. Just about everything is up in the air now, except for this: no matter which road the Mavericks take, it’s dramatically more interesting than the one they were on a week ago.
Author
Josh Bowe
Josh Bowe
View Profile
Josh Bowe covers the Mavericks for StrongSide. A former full-time journalist, Josh has covered the Mavericks as a writer and…