Kyril Louis-Dreyfus
Sunderland's elevation to the Premier League would bring the club vast riches as evidence of the yawning gap between the top division and the Championship. For Regis Le Bris’ side, success at Wembley would unlock immediate access to the Premier League’s lucrative broadcast and commercial revenue streams, which form the backbone of a nine-figure windfall.
Based on the 2023/24 distribution figures, even the lowest-earning Premier League club, Sheffield United, received a substantial £109.7m from central distributions alone. This dwarfs the annual payments Championship clubs receive from the EFL, which typically amount to just below £11m per season.
Premier League clubs benefit from the world’s most valuable domestic football broadcast deal, with international rights continuing to grow exponentially. These broadcasting revenues are distributed through various mechanisms, including equal shares, facility fees for televised matches, and merit payments based on final league position.
For a newly-promoted club, even finishing in 20th position would guarantee substantial income, with the potential to earn significantly more by securing Premier League survival. The merit payment system rewards higher-finishing teams, providing additional financial incentives for on-field success beyond mere survival.
It must be a mouthwatering prospect for Black Cats’ owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus. But without wishing to put a dampener on things in the build-up to such an important match as Saturday’s Championship play-off final against Sheffield United, it’s prudent not to let the euphoria suffocate realism in these situations.
If Sunderland are promoted, Louis-Dreyfus will need to spend big or risk coming straight back down again. If they don’t go up, the owner will have decisions to make over the club’s star players with the likes of Jobe Bellingham, Dan Ballard and Chris Rigg much sought-after and touted for moves.
Either way, it promises to be a busy time for the club’s hierarchy with the club at a crossroads. Eight years is a long time to be away from the top flight and yet in just a few days time, the Black Cats could be there again.
But the warning signs are everywhere. We all know what happened to the three promoted sides a year ago. They are all back in the Championship next season. Fair play to Sheffield United and Ipswich Town for sticking with their managers despite the downturn in fortunes, while Southampton changed theirs.
In the Premier League, would Sunderland back Regis Le Bris with new signings? If not, and his team are struggling at the foot of the table, will they stick with Le Bris or act quickly as a multitude of clubs have done over the years.
It was interesting to watch Frank Lampard’s reaction after Coventry’s defeat to Sunderland. He was upset, of course, but he looked calm. He had taken the club from 17th to the play-offs. Of course the Sky Blues would have loved to reach the Premier League once again. But were they ready? You can’t help but wonder whether, deep down, Lampard was thinking he had bought himself another year in management if he stays put. Have another crack at promotion next season and see where it takes him. The alternative could quite as easily have been him in charge of an ailing team at the top level and the sack within four months and headlines of ‘Lampard fails again.’
In that respect it is a hugely interesting period for Sunderland. Are the club ready for promotion? Of course the infrastructure is beyond question. The facilities, the fanbase, the sheer size of the club screams Premier League.
But what about on the pitch? Sunderland mostly play a counter-attacking game when allowing the opposition possession. In Coventry’s case it was 74 per cent in the semi-final first leg.
In simple terms, Sunderland’s game-plan was to sit and defend with 10 outfield players behind the ball and when they got it back, pass it to Eliezer Mayenda in the hope he would turn three players and score. When they did get the ball, they simply didn’t do enough to hold on to it and it kept coming back.
Let’s be honest, those tactics won’t work at the top level. Can anyone imagine a similar game-plan where you allow the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United, Liverpool or Man City to swarm all over you, then hope one player can turn it on at the other end? Louis-Dreyfus would need to spend an awful lot of the money the club would make to add quality.
The obvious names could hopefully step up. Le Fee [if he stays], Ballard, O’Nien, Hume, Mepham, Bellingham, perhaps. But one or two of those might not stay even if they go up. It is fair to say a squad revamp will be required.
Firstly, though, Sunderland have to get there and their fans have every right to think their team have a realistic chance.