ComplexroutetoEuropestillinplay
AsthePremierLeagueseasonentersitsfinalweekend,afascinatingsubplotbrewsbeneaththesummitofthetable.WhilemuchoftheattentionfocusesonChampionsLeaguequalificationfortheheavyweights,Brighton,BrentfordandBournemouthareclingingtoacuriousmathematicalhopeofsecuringaspotinEuropeforthe2025–26season.
Itisascenariothatrequiresseveralmovingpartstoalign,mostcruciallyaChelseatriumphintheUEFAConferenceLeaguefinalagainstRealBetison28May.Thatresult,pairedwiththeBluesfinishingseventhinthePremierLeague,wouldeffectivelypushtheEuropeandoorajarforwhoeverendsupineighth —currentlyBrighton,withBrentfordandBournemouthstilllurkingclosebehind.
Photo: IMAGO
ThisisnotEuropeanqualificationthroughbrilliancebutthroughbureaucracy.Andyetforclubsthathaverebuiltreputationsonsmartstrategyanddefyingexpectations,evenanunconventionalroutetocontinentalfootballholdsvalue.
WhyChelsea’sfinalmatterstomid-tableclubs
Chelsea’supcomingclashinAthenshasrippleeffectswellbeyond WestLondon.ShouldEnzoMaresca’ssidedefeatBetisandfinishoutsidethetopfive,theywouldautomaticallyclaimaEuropaLeaguespot.However,shouldtheysimultaneouslyfinishseventhintheleague,theirConferenceLeaguequalificationspotwouldpassdownthetable.
ThisiswhereBrighton,BrentfordandBournemouthcomein.Brighton,buoyedbyastunning3–2winoverLiverpoolonMonday,areinpoleposition.ButBrentfordandBournemouth,bothstillwithinstrikingdistance,havereasontobelieveinalast-dayswing.
Photo IMAGO
ThefinaltablewillultimatelyhingeonwhereChelseaandNewcastlefinish.IfChelseawintheConferenceLeagueandlandinsixth,andNewcastlefinishseventh,theneighthagainbecomesagoldentickettoEurope.ButshouldChelsealoseorfinishwithintheChampionsLeagueplaces,thepicturesimplifiesandnarrows,eliminatinghopesforthosebelowseventh.
Possibilitymorethanprobability
Itisasituationthat,intruth,feelsfar-fetchedbutnotimpossible.ForBournemouth,whohavequietlyimpressedunderAndoniIraola,eventhefaintestwhisperofEuropeanqualificationrepresentsamilestone.Brentford,lessconsistentthiscampaign,stillhavethetoolstosnatcharesultshouldresultselsewheregotheirway.
Photo: IMAGO
Whatmakesthissuchanintriguingnarrativeisthestretchofmodernfootballlogic.Europe,historicallytherealmofeliteclubs,maywelcomeoneofBrighton,BrentfordorBournemouthnotonthestrengthofsustaineddominance,butbecauseoffavourablepermutations.
Inthatsense,itisnotsimplyaboutfootballbutaboutresilience,identityandwhatitmeanstopunchaboveone’sweight.