Three of the last four Europa League finals have gone to penalties, will Tottenham vs Manchester United be next?
The oft-repeated cliché that football is a game of fine margins could be proven once again in Wednesday’s Europa League final when a few hours will decide which of Manchester United and Tottenham had a successful - or at least par - season, and which has been an abject failure this campaign.
And there would be no more dramatic way for that dichotomy to be determined than from the penalty spot, so who would that outcome favour? It would be a sense of déjà vu for both sets of fans as the clubs last met with a trophy on the line in 2009, under the Wembley arch in the then-Carling Cup final with Tottenham as defending champions; hard as it may be to believe.
The pair played out a goalless draw over 120 minutes though the spot kicks were decidedly one-sided as the Red Devils went four from four while only Vedran Ćorluka found the net for Harry Redknapp’s side.
Since then Manchester United have collected 12 more pieces of silverware but whereas that 2009 Alan Hardaker trophy was only a complimentary ruby to that season’s crown jewel of an 11th Premier League title for Sir Alex Ferguson, this Europa League triumph would be the lone sign of life in otherwise desolate season for the Red Devils under Ruben Amorim.
The stakes are even higher for Tottenham, who have perhaps their best chance to win a trophy since the 2008 League Cup against the 16th-placed Red Devils. The Europa League has been Spurs’ one saving grace in a dismal season, their continental record of two defeats in 14 matches contrasts sharply with just 11 victories in 37 Premier League games.
And in contrast to the opponents awaiting them in the Basque Country, Tottenham have often passed the eye test too. Free-flowing wins against teams outside of Europe’s elite leagues have combined with gutsy results away from home against Eintracht Frankfurt, Rangers and Hoffenheim often with juvenile matchday squads.
But Manchester United have so often proved a stumbling blog on the biggest stages, and the numbers suggest that could continue if the Europa League final does go the distance.
Andre Onana’s penalty save record
Onana boasts a penalty save percentage of 14% or seven out of 50 (around one in seven) - during normal or extra time (7/43), slightly better than his opposite number but just below the Premier League average. Most recently in the league, Onana dived low to his right to deny Cameron Archer and he’s let in six since then, so is due another save.
His record in shootouts is more of a mixed bag. Onana has lost three out of five in the last five years and those two victories have come against Championship side Coventry City, and a Burkina Faso squad then ranked 60th in the world.
However, his personal success rate skyrockets to 31% from 12 yards after 120 minutes (12 saves from 39 penalties), and over the course of his career Onana has won half of his eight spot-kick showdowns. That includes keeping out Sadio Mané to win an Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final against Senegal in 2017 aged only 20, Onana’s best shootout result to date albeit one that would be bettered if he’s the hero of Bilbao.
He’s let in three from the spot in this season’s Europa League and interestingly isn’t even the Manchester United goalie in the best form from 12 yards - that honour goes to Altay Bayındır. He was the keeper that flung himself left to deny Martin Ødegaard in normal time in this season’s FA Cup, then went the same way against Kai Havertz in the shootout to help dump Arsenal out of the competition in the third round.
While Manchester United fans won’t want Amorim taking too many cues from Louis van Gaal, could 120th-minute goalkeeper change make the difference à la the Netherlands at the 2014 World Cup?
Gugliermo Vicaro’s penalty save record
The Italian has a similar penalty save record to Onana in-game, five stops out of 39 at a rate of 12.5% or around one in eight over his career. However, beyond those numbers things start to look less rosy for Tottenham. There’s no other way of putting it: Vicario is yet to save a penalty from a Premier League player with four of his five successful in-game face-offs coming for Empoli and the other for Serie B side Venezia.
He’s also not competed in penalty shootout since 2020 and has lost two of three in his career. Vicario’s two most recent defeats from 12 yards came in high-pressure games too, back-to-back Serie B play-out losses that cost Venezia and AC Perugia Calcio a place at the pinnacle of Italian football.
To make matters worse, the latter was a missed opportunity for The Griffins to end a drought stretching back to the 2000s - sound familiar? Vicario at least made a save that night, as he did against AC Reggiana 1919 in his only shootout victory.
Coming in the Coppa Italia Lega Pro - a knockout competition only for Serie C sides - Vicario caused another miss taking his total success rate in shootouts to three out of 19 or 16%. Will that be enough against Manchester United if the Europa League final does go the distance? Time will tell.
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