The Minnesota Timberwolves have made it to the Western Conference Finals for the second year in a row, and they face their toughest challenge yet in the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not even the most optimistic Wolves fans would have seen this coming halfway through this season, even though the second half showed a complete image of what this team could become.
In some ways, the Wolves turned their season around after their overtime win over the Thunder on February 24. A short-staffed Timberwolves team was able to mount an unlikely 25-point comeback to win against a Western Conference-leading Thunder team that had heartbreakingly beaten them just 24 hours earlier.
The roads for both teams to get here were drastically different. The Thunder advanced in two series where they were the heavy favorites, much like this one. While the Denver Nuggets took them to Game 7, it was an instance where the series looked closer than it was.
While the Timberwolves will be going into the Western Conference well-rested and ready to go after two five-game series wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors, they must improve some things to win as -330 underdogs.
Here are three keys to success for the Timberwolves.
Limit Turnovers
Minnesota’s propensity to turn the ball over is the biggest problem this team has faced in the regular season. While the Wolves had better ball security in their first series against the Lakers, they seemed to regress to their old ways against the Warriors. Minnesota turned the ball over seven more times a game against Golden State than it did against LA.
While the talent gap between a Warriors team without Steph Curry and the Timberwolves was so large that the Timberwolves won in five games, that won’t be the case against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder finished the regular season with the best defense in the NBA in defensive rating (101.6) and steals (10.6). Even more concerning is the Thunder’s ability to make teams pay for these mistakes, getting up and down the court in transition and getting easy points off turnovers.
Julius Randle must limit his turnovers in this series because the Thunder may look to take him away and force him to play a more facilitative role. The Wolves will also need Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to step up and have a better shooting series. Both have been shooting well under their season averages.
Crash the Glass
Minnesota has been a little bit lucky with how the playoffs have unfolded because they’ve faced the Warriors and the Lakers, two teams that lack size and a true post presence to compete with Rudy Gobert.
The Wolves could dominate in the paint and prevent too many second-chance points while racking up a few of their own. In both closeout games, Rudy Gobert was so dominant that even Shaquille O’Neal, a man who has been an outspoken critic of his, had to praise him.
The Wolves have no such luck with the size advantage in this matchup. They will face off against two seven-footers, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren. The Wolves must ensure they don’t allow the Thunder any easy second-chance points.
On the offensive side, the Wolves could also be at an advantage here if they can get boards. The Thunder struggled to close out possessions against the Nuggets, allowing Denver to hang around in games. The Timberwolves must crash the glass to give themselves their best chance of winning this series.
Be Physical
While the series has yet to start on the court, it has already begun in the media with Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault saying he expects Chris Finch to criticize the officiating, something Finch and other coaches have done when facing the Thunder this season.
In the past, Finch has spoken about how officials have not let opposing teams get physical with the Thunder while allowing OKC to be very physical on defense. Even other players have noticed. In the last series, Jamal Murray seemed to mock Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as he went to the ground on contact.
Minnesota’s need to stay physically active against the Thunder will be crucial in this series. OKC has just one day of rest compared to Minnesota’s five days between their series, and playoff basketball is often much more physical and attritional.
The Wolves can take advantage of their opponent’s lack of rest and jump on them in Game 1. They should also consider potentially giving more minutes to Jaylen Clark, who seemed to have some success guarding SGA.