With tipoff of the Western Conference Finals just hours away, let's dive into the 3 best player props for Timberwolves vs. Thunder in Game 1 of a must-see Western Conference Finals clash between two of the deepest, most athletic teams in the NBA.
In tonight's game, we're bullish on two Timberwolves -- forwards Naz Reid and Julius Randle -- and we also expect another big game from MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-102 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Superstars are rarely going to provide the best prop bets, but SGA is the exception to that rule right now.
With at least 22 field goal attempts in 6 of OKC's 11 playoff games to date, Gilgeous-Alexander's volume is likely to once again be massive in Game 1.
If the fact he's taken well over 20 FGA in more than half of his playoff games this year doesn't do it for you, keep in mind that that three of the five times when he took under 20 FGA came in blowouts (Game 1 vs. the Grizzlies and Games 2 and 7 vs. the Nuggets).
His regular-season stats in four games against the Wolves also jump off the page: 35 points, 7.25 rebounds and 6.75 assists per game on 45-for-88 FG shooting (51 percent), including 10-for-18 from 3 (55.5 percent). He finished with 37 or more points in three of those games, with a 24-point, 8-rebound, 9-assist night on Feb. 13 marking his "least productive" game of the year vs. OKC's opponent in this series.
In addition, his usage rate was at least 35 percent in three of those games, and he averaged 12 free-throw attempts per game vs. the Timberwolves, with at least 9 in all four games.
Given how efficient and productive SGA was vs. Minnesota this year, we should expect him to carry the offensive load for the Thunder in this series until the Wolves give them reason not to.
If you're looking for a bit more upside than this prop offers, consider placing a half-unit on Shai Gilgeous Alexander (alt) Over 34.5 Points (+178 at FanDuel).
Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points (+104 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
We're getting a little less obvious -- and a little more risky -- with our second pick of the night. Let's start with a look below at his impressive production in four regular-season battles with OKC:
Naz Reid '24-25 stats vs. Thunder Compared to Reg. Season Average
Minutes: 37.75 per game (reg. season avg: 27.5)
Points: 22.5 per game (reg. season avg: 14.2)
Rebounds: 11 per game (reg. season avg: 6)
3-point shooting: 29 percent on 7.75 3PA (reg. season: 37.9 percent on 5.8 3PA)
FG shooting: 45 percent on 17.75 FGA (reg. season: 46.2 percent on 11.5 FGA)
Let's start with the reason Reid's line is this low, which is also the biggest reason to be skeptical of riding with the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year in 2024. We're referring, of course, to his quiet finish in the Wolves' first-round series vs. the Warriors.
After a 19-point night in Game 1 of that series, Reid -- who averaged career-highs in points per game (14.2), field-goal attempts per game (11.5) and 3PA per game (5.8) this year -- took 10 FGA or fewer in Games 2-5 of Wolves vs. Warriors.
But his minutes remained steady throughout that matchup. I expect him to get plenty of open looks in the WCF against a Thunder team that deliberately gives up a ton of 3-point attempts.
Reid's role tonight is a bit hard to project given that he played heavier minutes than usual in all four of the regular-season games between these teams due to injuries. With Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and Rudy Gobert all out in the MIN-OKC games on Feb. 13, Feb. 23 and Feb. 24, Reid logged over 37 minutes in all three of those contests.
At the same time, it's worth noting that he also played nearly 33 minutes vs. OKC on Dec. 31 with each of Minnesota's top eight players available.
More importantly, Reid scored 19 or more points in all four games vs. the Thunder, including 19 with his team at full strength on Dec. 31. He also had 22, 22 and 27 points, respectively, in the Feb. 13, Feb. 23 and Feb. 24 meetings with Randle, DiVincenzo and Gobert sidelined.
Reid also averaged 11 rebounds per game vs. the Thunder. That should only help his chances of playing heavy minutes tonight and throughout this series against the solid OKC frontcourt anchored by Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
In the regular season, when Reid, who averaged 27.5 minutes per game, played at least 27 minutes, he cleared 11.5 points in 25/32 games. In fact, Reid scored 15 points or more in 23-of-32, and he finished with at least 20 points in 14-of-32 such games.
With that in mind, assuming his playing time isn't limited tonight, small plays on Reid to score 15+ points (best odds: +230 at bet365) and/or Reid to score 20+ points (best odds: +850 at bet365) strike us as low-risk, high-upside ways to spend a half or quarter-unit.
Julius Randle Over 20.5 Points (+110 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Let's wrap up with a play that doesn't require an in-depth explanation. Randle averaged 22.6 points per game in the first round vs. the Lakers, and he was even better against the Warriors, with 25.2 points per game in that series.
He's taking nearly all of his shots at the rim or from 3-point land, and after bullying eight-time NBA All-Defensive Teamer Draymond Green in the conference semis, the 11-year vet looks poised to have another big series in his first career appearance in a conference finals.
The scariest thing for the Thunder is that Randle -- who shot a respectable 34 percent from 3 this year -- scored at will against the Warriors despite shooting just 29.6 percent from outside. While he did go 4-for-8 from deep in his 31-point night in Game 4 vs. GSW, he also averaged 25.7 points per game in Games 2, 3 and 5 despite 4-for-16 3-point shooting in those contests.
While we wouldn't rule out a good 3-point shooting night by Randle tonight given how many 3PAs the Thunder allow, we'll stick with him going over 20.5 points at plus-money.
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This story was originally published May 20, 2025 at 2:47 PM.