As the Eastern Conference Finals tip off Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, updated stat projections show a striking scoring gap between New York’s Jalen Brunson and Indiana’s leading offensive threat for Game 1.
Game details
Teams:Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
What: NBA Eastern Conference Finals, Game 1
Date: Wednesday, May 21, 2025
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Madison Square Garden
NBA news:Check the latest updates from the official NBA news site
Full Stat Projections for Game 1 — Knicks vs. Pacers
Player Team PTS REB AST 3PM BLK STL TO
Jalen Brunson NYK 29.3 3.2 8.1 2.4 0.2 0.7 2.8
Karl-Anthony Towns NYK 22.3 11.5 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.8 2.6
Pascal Siakam IND 21.3 6.6 3.6 1.6 0.6 1.0 1.6
Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.3 4.3 8.8 3.0 0.9 1.2 1.9
Mikal Bridges NYK 17.7 4.2 3.6 1.9 1.0 1.1 2.1
OG Anunoby NYK 17.6 5.1 2.1 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.6
Myles Turner IND 14.7 6.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 0.7 1.3
Aaron Nesmith IND 13.7 5.4 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.8 1.1
Josh Hart NYK 12.8 9.3 5.8 1.2 0.4 1.4 1.9
Andrew Nembhard IND 12.4 3.5 5.1 1.4 0.3 1.2 1.9
Obi Toppin IND 10.1 3.0 1.5 1.6 0.2 0.4 0.9
Bennedict Mathurin IND 9.1 3.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.2
T.J. McConnell IND 7.8 2.2 3.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1
Miles McBride NYK 7.1 1.6 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.4
Mitchell Robinson NYK 5.6 6.8 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.9
Thomas Bryant IND 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Ben Sheppard IND 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3
Cameron Payne NYK 2.2 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3
Based on new simulation results from Dimers, Brunson is expected to lead the Knicks with a prolific 29.3 points, outpacing the Pacers’ top scorer, Pascal Siakam, by nearly 40% (37.6%, to be exact).
Indiana’s Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton — who power much of their offense — are projected to put up 21.3 and 20.3 points respectively, creating a significant differential that could shape the series’ opening contest.
New York’s Offensive Engine
Brunson’s scoring projection highlights his vital role in New York’s methodical half-court offense. Averaging over 8 assists per game, Brunson is not only a primary scorer but also the team’s chief playmaker, orchestrating the offense and setting up teammates like Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges.
Towns is projected to add 22.3 points and 11.5 rebounds, providing a strong inside presence alongside Bridges’ balanced scoring and defense.
The Knicks’ starting lineup, however, has struggled at times to consistently mesh throughout the playoffs. This has forced New York into several late-game comebacks as they try to overcome deficits — a pattern that could become a critical factor if the Pacers’ depth and pace overwhelm them.
Indiana’s Balanced Attack
Indiana’s offensive strength lies in its depth and speed. The Pacers boast the highest high-volume lineup rating in the playoffs, anchored by Haliburton’s 20.3 points and 8.8 assists per game, and complemented by Siakam’s 21.3 points and 6.6 rebounds.
Myles Turner and Aaron Nesmith add solid contributions, particularly on defense and from beyond the arc.
The Pacers are known for their ability to push the pace, relying on their athleticism to wear down opponents over a series. This style contrasts with New York’s more deliberate offense, setting up a classic “styles make series” scenario.
Matchups to Watch
Defensively, New York will task Mikal Bridges with containing Haliburton, while OG Anunoby is expected to guard Siakam. Inside, the battle between Karl-Anthony Towns and Myles Turner will be pivotal. One key question will be how well Indiana’s Andrew Nembhard can contain Brunson — a matchup that proved challenging last postseason and could again determine which team gains the upper hand.
Game 1 Pacers vs. Knicks NBA Predictions for Wednesday Night
Leveraging machine learning and analysis, Dimers’ re-simulated the Pacers-Knicks game 10,000 times early Wednesday morning. Here are the updated predictions and insights:
Straight Up Win Probabilities: Pacers 34%, Knicks 66%
Predicted Final Score: Pacers 109-113 Knicks
Series Outlook
The series pits New York’s half-court, methodical offense — centered on Brunson’s scoring and playmaking — against Indiana’s deeper, faster-paced attack. The Pacers have dominated with a high-volume lineup featuring Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam, and Turner, boasting a plus-22.1 net rating in the playoffs.
New York’s starting five, while talented, has struggled with cohesion, reflected in a minus-4.7 net rating during the playoffs. This inconsistency has led to late-game comebacks rather than comfortable leads.
Defensive matchups will be critical: Bridges vs. Haliburton, Anunoby vs. Siakam, Towns vs. Turner, and especially Nembhard’s ability to contain Brunson, which could prove decisive for Indiana.
Current Odds
Utilize the interactive widget below to see the current spread, over/under, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Pacers-Knicks matchup at Madison Square Garden.
Odds at time of publication for the key markets in the Pacers-Knicks Game 1 matchup:
Spread: Pacers +4.5 (-110), Knicks -4.5 (-106)
Moneyline: Pacers +162, Knicks -180
Total: Over/Under 223 (-110/-110)
NBA fans nationwide can unlock bonus bets for Game 1 with the BetMGM bonus code “SILIVE150,” while local Knicks fans in New Jersey can leverage the $150 BetMGM bonus code “CUSE150″ and Indiana residents can redeem the $150 Bet365 bonus code “SYRACUSE,” as reported by our colleagues at Syracuse.com.
Please note that when engaging in online betting, it is important to exercise responsible gambling practices and consult reliable sources for accurate and up-to-date information.