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Bill Simmons predicts Austin Reaves scenario Lakers dread

Austin Reaves is a beloved figure in Los Angeles. A player who went from undrafted to a borderline star, his story is easy to have a soft spot for.

The Los Angeles Lakers managed to secure Reaves on what quickly became a very team-friendly contract as well. His four-year, $53.8 million deal easily became one of the best bang for your buck signings in the entire NBA.

However, 2025-26 will be the last guaranteed season of that contract before a player option for the 2026-27 campaign. Based on the production Reaves has offered of late, it is in his best interests to decline that option and explore his value as a free agent.

This leaves Rob Pelinka and the Lakers front office with a critical decision that must be made in the near future. Ultimately, it may even lead to a scenario they dread.

The Austin Reaves crossroads

Reaves has displayed some strong upside this past season. It would be fair to expect that the Lakers guard could one day reach All-Star status. However, the dollar value of his next contract and whether the front office wants to commit to that contract is a genuine question that needs to be asked.

Dave McMenamin previously wrote, "He could also wait until the summer of 2026 when he'd be eligible for a four-year, $98 million extension, or opt out of the final year of his contract, become an unrestricted free agent and be eligible for 25% of whatever the salary cap is set at for 2026-27."

This kind of projected pay day has led many, including Bill Simmons, to believe that Reaves' days with the Lakers are numbered. The podcast host stated as much to Ryen Russillo on a recent episode of his show.

"Reaves is getting traded," Simmons said with confidence. "That one I would bet on. ... He's just going to be able to get more money outside that team than he will with the team, and he's not going to stay for less money again."

Simmons added that it made sense to trade Reaves, based on the projected ceiling with the trio of him, Luka Doncic, and LeBron James. The NBA personality believed the Lakers would be better off trading their talented offensive guard for a center.

Dan Woike of The Los Angeles Times recently wrote, "The team has shown no interest in using Reaves in a trade that nets them anything less than a top-tier big."

Woike also noted that 'there really aren't any of those available.' Still, the Lakers should do their due diligence in calling around the league. There are certainly a handful of fascinating trade targets of that regard.

It is understandable to see the Lakers taking a cautious approach with the future of Reaves in Los Angeles. Even so, with the fourth-year pro near the peak of his value, Pelinka and company would be wise not to completely rule out a change before their scenario here grows even more dreadful.

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