Ah, an Eastern Conference Finals between the Knickerbockers and Pacers, just like everyone predicted!
It makes total sense, considering that New York went 0-4 against Boston during the regular season and Indiana is led by John Haliburton’s son.
That isn’t to take away from either team, both of whom deserve to be here. It affirms the parity in today’s NBA and gives fans a surprisingly interesting matchup with many stylistic wrinkles.
So, are the Villanova Knicks destined to make the finals, or will Indiana’s unique system be too much to handle?
Let’s find out.
Key questions
Who guards Brunson, and how will that impact the matchups?
Similar to past years, Brunson has elevated his game this postseason. The Pacers need to limit his effectiveness to maximize their odds of winning, but there are no good answers given the matchup issues that he creates.
Andrew Nembhard was the first tasked with guarding Brunson last year, but struggled mightily to contain the Knicks star. Nembhard actually did a good job of staying in front of Brunson, but the latter was able to get to his spots at will, before showcasing why he specializes in tough shot-making.
Rick Carlisle thus quickly pivoted to Aaron Nesmith – an adjustment that helped the Pacers come back and win. Logic dictates that Indiana should go back to that matchup, but the key difference between this NY team and the one last year is the addition of KAT.
If the Pacers start Nesmith on Brunson, that likely means Siakam would be the primary defender on KAT. As a result, Siakam would need to get over screens and switch on to Brunson whenever he and KAT run pick-and-rolls, which would be an even worse matchup for the Pacers than having Nembhard guard Brunson.
The alternative is to start Nembhard on Brunson and Nesmith on KAT. Indiana would be less susceptible to getting attacked in the Brunson-KAT two-man game, and could easily switch defensively. Of course, the worry here would be having Nembhard switch onto KAT, but the latter struggles when being matched against guards anyway. A pesky defender like Nembhard would make it difficult for KAT to get his shot off even with the size mismatch, and Indiana could send doubles if Big Purr has the ball against Nembhard in the post.
Outside of the Brunson-KAT two-man game, the Knicks will also look to attack Haliburton, who’ll likely guard Bridges. The latter has experience being a secondary ballhandler who’s capable of running P&Rs, and New York could isolate Bridges against Hali or run wing-guard P&Rs to get the Pacers’ guard switched onto Brunson. With that said, this will get New York out of their preferred Brunson/KAT-centric offense, so it remains to be seen how much Tom Thibodeau wants to run plays through his wings.
Lastly, Turner will likely roam off of Hart, which should theoretically keep him closer to the basket — the area where New York does its most damage. In the regular season, the Knicks were top 5 league-wide in rim attempts (although just 19th in finishing) while Indiana was bottom 10 in amounts of shots conceded in that area. However, the Pacers kept opponent shooting at the rim to just 65.3%, good for 8th in the league, so Indiana’s restricted area will be a key battleground in this series.
New York will put a lot of pressure on Indiana, but that’s to be expected given their elite offense. The Pacers will need to hold up defensively while running their layered attack — one that might be even tougher for the Knicks to slow down.
How will the Knicks slow down the Pacers?
This series could come down to how much the Pacers can impose their unique style of play. Indiana ranks first among all playoff teams in passes (337.1) and assists (29.7) per game, whereas the Knicks’ opponents so far (Boston and Detroit) were at the bottom of both categories. New York was somewhat fortunate that the Celtics’ and Pistons’ offense were often bogged down due to their slow, iso-heavy styles — neither team took advantage of a Knicks squad that struggles to rotate and recover against heavy ball movement.
In terms of matchups, the Knicks will likely start Bridges on Haliburton and OG on Siakam (sorry, Raps fans). Unlike New York, though, Indiana doesn’t have any bad shooters like Hart for KAT to sag off of. The Pacers’ entire starting five is shooting over 40% from deep this postseason except for… Haliburton, somehow. That means KAT will probably be on Turner, leaving Hart on Nembhard and Brunson on Nesmith.
At first glance, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious mismatch for the Pacers to attack, especially since Brunson will be guarding Indiana’s least involved offensive player in Nesmith. However, the Pacers’ greatest offensive mismatch is their system: they run multiple sets on every possession, which will be a big test for a Knicks team that’s poor at communicating and switching off-ball.
Look how many actions the Pacers packed into this possession:
- Away for Nesmith
- Flip from Nesmith to Nembhard
- Nembhard-Turner PnR
- Turner-Nesmith veer (smash)
- Nembhard-Nesmith PnR (Turner seal)
Playoff Nembhard w/ the lefty dart.
Tyrese never even had to touch the ball. https://t.co/jWMIeV5r8N pic.twitter.com/5gvhYjcA9i
— Caitlin Cooper (@C2_Cooper) May 5, 2025
The ball movement from the Indiana Pacers. Cleveland has to contain drives, can't overhelp or be late rotating. pic.twitter.com/7EBUNN2O7r
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) May 5, 2025
The Pacers are making 42.4% of their threes during the playoffs, and it’s easy to see why given their unselfish play. However, that’s an unsustainable number given that they only shot at a 36.7% clip in the regular season, but the Knicks can’t bank on regression when the sample size is so small in the playoffs. New York needs to continue limiting opponent threes, as only 37.6% of shot attempts from other teams came from beyond the arc in the regular season, good for 6th league-wide.
Another hallmark of Indiana’s style is, well, their pace. Only OKC plays at a higher pace amongst the remaining playoff teams, and Indiana will speed up the game and force New York to contain their high-tempo offense.
Surprisingly, the Pacers have been middle of the pack in transition frequency this postseason, and it’ll only become more difficult for them to run — the Knicks were 6th league-wide in transition frequency allowed (14.2%) in the regular season, which was better than both the Cavs and Bucks. The best way of preventing Indiana from running is grabbing offensive rebounds, which brings us to the X-Factor of this series.
X-Factor: Mitchell Robinson
Even as a depth player, Mitchell Robinson’s importance in this series can’t be overstated. He’s re-established himself as a crucial piece of New York’s rotation, and how Robinson performs may very well swing the East Finals.
Specifically, Robinson’s offensive rebounding could be the key to slowing down the Pacers. Indiana’s vaunted counter-attack starts in their own zone following a defensive rebound, which leads to either a transition opportunity or an advantageous cross-match created by their pace.
So far in these playoffs, the Knicks have a 26.1% offensive rebounding rate (20th percentile) without Robinson, which skyrockets to 37.9% (97th percentile) when he plays. That latter number dwarfs Indiana’s defensive rebounding rate, which has been mediocre in both the playoffs (71.8%, 8th out of 16 teams) and the regular season (71.7%, 18th).
If New York can run actions to get Robinson switched onto a guard or wing, the entire state might yell BBQ chicken. This would be the case if the Knicks play KAT and Robinson together as well, and the offensive rebounding would add an extra dimension to New York’s offense too.
With that said, the other end of the court will also be tricky — but for the Knicks. Due to Robinson being a non-spacing big, the lane is clogged up whenever he’s on the court, making it more difficult for players like Brunson to drive. New York has only attempted 27.5% of its shots at the rim (37th percentile) when he plays during the playoffs, which is a meaningful decrease from the 32.4% (85th percentile) when he sits. The Knicks’ attempts from three stay the same, meaning that they’ve replaced highly efficient rim attempts with mid-rangers that are less so, and their offensive rating drops from 112.8 (44th percentile) to 111.3 (36th percentile) as a result.
Even so, New York’s defensive rating improving by 12 points (116.4 to 104.6) with Robinson playing more than makes up for their drop in offensive efficiency — so far. Indiana is a much better defensive team than the Pistons and an out-of-sync Cavs squad, and the Knicks will need to maximize their offense as much as possible by playing five out around KAT so that Brunson can drive into open lanes.
Moreover, having Robinson on the floor essentially glues Hart to the bench. It’s untenable to play two non-shooters this deep into the playoffs, and the Knicks are then forced to replace Hart with Deuce McBride, who’s a better shooter but less versatile in every other aspect of the game. Don’t be surprised to see some Hack-a-Mitch, either, especially since Indiana’s depth allows them to be more liberal with fouling.
Ultimately, Robinson can only swing the series in New York’s favor if his offensive rebounding can mask his limited offensive creation. It’s a simple principle, but only time will tell which side wins out.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Similar to last year, Indiana’s pace might be too much for New York to handle. The Knicks are healthier and deeper now, but so are the Pacers, who are playing more connected and free than ever before. New York’s defense held up well enough in the first two rounds, but they haven’t faced a test like Indiana, who’ll put them in countless actions to confuse a Knicks team that struggles to execute complex switches.
New York could try going to Robinson, but his impact could be limited against an innovative coach in Carlisle who’s much more willing to make adjustments than J.B. Bickerstaff and the return of Second Row Joe. Indiana being a more versatile team is another feather in their cap, and Haliburton replicating Reggie’s infamous choke could be the death knell for the Knicks.
Pacers in 6. GUARANTEED!!!