Are you a risk taker or do you like to play things a bit safer? If you’re a risk taker, you’re probably all-in on Rutgers’ Ace Bailey becoming a Sixer in about one month’s time. If not, you’re either all the way out on Bailey as a Sixer or at the very least you’re sweating things out when it comes to what Daryl Morey and company do with the third overall pick in next month’s NBA Draft.
So, how’d we get to the point where Bailey has created so many fireworks amongst Sixers fans? For starters, Bailey’s college performances did show enough inconsistencies to knock him down a tier below his college teammate Dylan Harper and certainly below Cooper Flagg. At his best, Bailey is scoring from just about anywhere on the floor. But there were enough games in the Big 10 that made scouts have some second thoughts as well. His cold shooting at times coupled with poor defensive fundamentals have created a floor that might be a little too low for some teams at the top of the draft. His 69% free throw figure is also a minor red flag at the very least.
The comparisons that get thrown around most commonly for Bailey are Rudy Gay and Michael Porter Jr. Those are two wings that we’ve seen have the ability to heat up offensively and take games over, but were unable to do it on a consistent enough basis to be more than the second or third best players on contenders. Those that are firmly in Bailey’s corner will make the point that if he’s already being mentioned in the same breath as Porter and Gay at 18 and 19, what names might be thrown around in a couple years for Bailey?
That brings us to the Kevin Durant comparisons. At 6-foot-10, the idea behind those comparisons are that Bailey will be able to elevate and shoot over practically any NBA wing which will naturally make his shot creation skills look very easy. But when you look at the stats from Durant’s one season in college at Texas and the accolades he received as a Longhorn and compare them to Bailey’s lone season as a Scarlet Knight, the collegiate resumes are not even remotely close to each other.
At the end of the day though, this is mostly a projection and fans should be cautious not to put too much stock in Bailey’s college stats, which still are not bad. Bailey played 30 games at Rutgers this season on a team that failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament while Durant played 35 on a team that did make the tournament nearly two decades ago.
Sixers fans have been down this road before with Ben Simmons at LSU. It’s certainly a bit bizarre that Rutgers had Bailey and Harper and couldn’t make the tournament, but players like Tre Johnson and V.J. Edgecombe, who are viewed as similar prospects to Bailey, only played a few extra games anyway despite making the tournament at their respective schools. At the end of the day, we’re evaluating all of these college prospects off of less than 40 games played in the NCAA which isn’t even half of an NBA season. The sample size is small for all of them.
It seems like many Sixers fans that like Bailey cannot resist the fact that he feels like such a natural fit with the current roster. Sure, at his listed weight of just 200 pounds, Bailey will need to bulk up a bit to adequately defend NBA wings, particularly closer to the basket. But even in a down year last season, Paul George defended well and defense has always been a calling card for a healthy Joel Embiid. Bailey could slot in as the team’s starting small forward much more easily than Edgecombe and Johnson could. The latter two are players, who are probably a little too small to play the three, although Edgecombe possesses immensely athletic ability for someone that’s listed at 6-foot-4.
The first six in a rotation being Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes, Ace Bailey, Paul George, Joel Embiid and Jared McCain sounds pretty good to a lot of fans. Bailey probably possesses the highest long-term ceiling of the prospects in this year’s draft after Flagg and Harper. But a good argument can be made his bust rate is much higher than Edgecombe and Johnson’s is and perhaps even a few other prospects in consideration for Philadelphia in the lottery. If Bailey doesn’t bulk up, he will get bullied in the paint by other wings similar to his height. His shot creation and overall scoring ability might be really good, but will it be good enough to make up for those potential deficiencies on defense?
This is why we suggested Philadelphia has the keys to the draft at three. One team is going to fall in love with Bailey’s upside. In two or three years he might have added the necessary 20-30 pounds and be averaging 20-25 points per game. That team might be the Sixers. If it’s someone else, Philly gets to hold that team hostage and extract every last ounce of value out of said team in a trade. If Morey does not get enough in a trade offer from another team that wants to come up to third overall and select Bailey, he might feel perfectly fine staying there and selecting someone other than Bailey. There are a whole lot of possibilities for the Sixers and a lot of them are rooted in the fact that opinions on Bailey seem to vary an awful lot.