The NBA Playoffs is often a war of attrition, and this Eastern Conference Final is no exception.
The third seeded New York Knicks just beat the defending champion Boston Celtics in six games in their second-round matchup. In that series, Jayson Tatum tore his achillies late in game four, and we found out that Jaylen Brown was playing through a meniscus tear in the series. However, you don’t apologize for series wins and the Knicks certainly will not be. They earned every bit of that series win after coming down twice from 20 points down to beat Boston in TD Garden.
The fourth seeded Indiana Pacers just handed the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers a gentleman’s sweep in their second round series. Indiana also was the beneficiary of some injury help, but that doesn’t explain away why the Cavs blew a seven-point lead in less than a minute to lose game two of this series. It also doesn’t explain why Cleveland also blew a 19-point lead in game five to lose the series. The Pacers were just better.
Of course, this series is littered with lore and history going way back. Recently, the Pacers beat the Knicks in seven games last year in the second round, but the Knicks have a different group this year. In fact, the Pacers have won the last three series between these two and five of the last six overall, dating back to 1995. You might remember that 1995 series for a certain Pacer who will be heard from prominently in this year’s tilt.
With the history lesson out of the way, let’s figure out who is going to advance to the NBA Finals.
If you missed it, read our Western Conference Finals preview.
Odds provided by theDraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
(4) Indiana Pacers vs (3) New York Knicks
Series winner: New York (-145) Indiana (+125)
Series spread: New York -1.5 games (+150) Indiana +1.5 games (-180)
Tyler’s pick: Pacers in 6
The Pacers have more outs in this series than the Knicks do. I believe that Indiana has a better and more diverse offense with Rick Carlisle at the helm, and shockingly, I trust their defense more than I do the Knicks. I also think Rick is a far superior coach to Thibs. If I believe those things to be true, there’s only one way I can go here.
New York needs both Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns to be spectacular in order to win. To their credit, they absolutely have been thus far in these playoffs. The Pacers, though, have already shown they can win with Tyrese Haliburton not being a great scorer. In game four against the Cavs, the Pacers won by a 100 (unofficially) with Hali only scoring 11. They’re just a more diverse group and have more ways to get the job done.
Series props
Pacers to win game 1 and win the series (+265)
Either team to come back and win a game from 20+ points down (+400)
Pacers to be up 2-1 after game 3 (+180)
Josh Hart to average 10+ rebounds per game (+190)
Per everyone’s good friend Matt Moore of the Action Network, Rick Carlisle is 67% against the spread as a road underdog in game one of the playoffs, winning over half of those games outright. I think the Pacers can ambush the Knicks in game one. That also plays into the Pacers being up 2-1 after game three. As far as the come back from 20+ points and win play, we just saw last series the Pacers come back from 19 down and the Knicks come back from 20 points down twice. These teams are volatile. Lastly, Josh Hart is a madman and therefore I trust him to get in and do the dirty work against a Pacers team without a dominant rebounding presence.
David’s pick: Pacers in 6
This will be an exciting reinvention of a classic rivalry. The Knicks play a brand of basketball comparable to the Knicks from years past, but the Pacers play the most modern type of ball you can play. Indiana plays a form of pace-and-space, launching 40 threes a game, boasting an offensive rating of 117.3, while playing quickly at just under 100 possessions per game. The Knicks do none of the sort, playing nearly five possessions slower, taking four fewer threes per game, and only scoring 110.7 points per 100 possessions. It is truly a matchup of “math ball” and “old school grit and grind”.
Either style has it’s flaws, especially this late in the playoffs. For the Pacers, they could lose on shooting variance. For the Knicks, they could feel the tired legs and lose to attrition. There will probably be games that both teams lose for these reasons. Ultimately, however, it will come down to this: the Pacers have increased their net rating in the playoffs, while the Knicks have nearly dropped to zero. In the regular season, the Knicks actually had the offensive edge (117.3 to 115.4 points per 100 possessions) while their defensive ratings were exactly the same (113.3). The playoffs have been a different story. The Pacers have increased their offensive rating to 117.3 and lowered their defensive rating to 111.9, while the Knicks have been better on defense (110.6 rating), but their offense has plummeted to 110.7 points per 100 possessions. For this reason, the Pacers will win the series in six games.
Series props
Pacers to win (+125)
Tyrese Haliburton to average 10+ assists (+200)
Josh Hart to lead the league in rebounds (+500)
Jalen Brunson to average 30+ PPG (+230)
The Pacers are going to win this series, so taking their moneyline at + money is great value. Haliburton probably won’t score too much in this series, given the wing defenders that New York has. But he will be able to distribute and pick apart the Knicks’ defense. Hart is a flyer here, assuming Karl-Anthony Towns will be on the perimeter a lot with Myles Turner, and Hart will be closer to the rim guarding Pascal Siakam. Brunson is going to have a huge series in a losing effort, as no one on Indiana can guard him.