The Minnesota Timberwolves shot a playoff-high 51 three-point attempts (3PA) in their Game 1 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. According to tracking data, 39 of those shots were quantified as “open” 3PA.
The Timberwolves only made 11 of their open 3PA. Ultimately, rotational role players Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo shot just 4 for 24 on their open threes.
Oklahoma City’s game plan is to force anyone other than Anthony Edwards or Julius Randle to beat them, and it worked in Game 1.
“They clog the paint, that’s what they do. They don’t got much size down there,” Edwards said regarding OKC’s coverages. “Every time I go to the rim, it’s like four players at the rim.”
Statistically, the Thunder are one of the NBA’s greatest individual defenses of all time. Their 106.6 defensive rating is one of the greatest in NBA history relative to league average. Through connectivity as a unit and elite defenders like Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Lu Dort, OKC makes scoring difficult for even the league’s best offenses.
It was never going to be easy for Edwards and the Timberwolves to crack OKC’s stout defense, but the Thunder played into their hand in Game 1. Minnesota generated good shots but couldn’t execute on its offensive advantages.
“They bank on us not making shots. They put like four bodies in the paint, make you kick it out.” Edwards said after the Game 1 loss. “Just (have to) keep making the right play.“
The playoffs are a different game from the regular season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, and Donte DiVincenzo were outstanding three-point shooters in the regular season, but they have not found consistent rhythm in the playoffs. Reid is shooting 21 of 52 (40.4%), but Alexander-Walker and DiVincenzo are shooting a combined 29 of 111 (26.1%) from three-point range.
Reid can still positively influence Minnesota’s offense with his size and off-the-dribble downhill scoring ability. However, when opponents drive DiVincenzo and Alexander-Walker off the three-point line by aggressive defensive closeouts or when they cannot consistently hit three-point shots, DiVincenzo and Alexander-Walker have little value to Minnesota’s offense.
The Timberwolves struggled when Reid, DiVincenzo, and Alexander-Walker couldn’t effectively knock down three-point shots that were a pass away from Edwards and Randle in Game 1.
Alexander-Walker and DiVincenzo don’t have enough finishing nuance or athleticism to score against OKC’s rim protection, and they are not going to be as effective a step inside the arc for a long two-point mid-range jump shot. The duo’s options are limited if they don’t capitalize on their three-point opportunities.
The Wolves aren’t going to win a series if they fully rely on the role players to win. Therefore, they must find better ways to get Edwards and Randle more shot attempts.
Randle and Edwards’s 26 combined field-goal attempts in Game 1 against OKC were the lowest output this playoffs.
“Definitely gotta shoot more, I only took 13 f—ing shots,” said Edwards. “I would say probably just getting off the ball more. Playing on-ball, they’re just going to double and sit in the gaps. So got to go watch some film and pick it apart. We’ll figure it out.”
Edwards wasn’t able to find many opportunities to score in Game 1. He only took one field goal in the 4th quarter. Randle scored 18 points and drilled 5 threes in the first half. However, he couldn’t find rhythm in the second half. Both coincide with the Timberwolves losing their lead, and effectively the game, as the second half continued.
As the series continues, the Timberwolves and Chris Finch must be more creative in optimizing Randle and Edwards. It will be a challenge, though.
Edwards and Randle’s post-ups were blitzed the second they turned their back, which led to multiple turnovers.
Randle cannot play as much bully ball to get to his patented mid-range left-shoulder fade away as he did against the Golden State Warriors because of OKC’s stunting defense and size.
Rudy Gobert‘s ball screens for Edwards can open up dribble pull-up three-point opportunities. However, that’s not guaranteed to work because OKC can play drop defense at the level and blitz the ball effectively.
The Timberwolves have lost a tough game early in all three playoff series. Edwards’s inability to find rhythm against LA’s switching defense and zone looks defined the Game 2 loss. The Game 1 loss to Golden State was defined by Minnesota’s inability to find an offensive rhythm, posting a playoffs-low 96 offensive rating.
When Edwards was asked how he could bounce back from their Game 1 and attack OKC’s defensive coverages, he responded with a smile, “Yeah, I feel great. They’re just sitting gaps and double-teaming all day, so should be alright.”