Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals went quite poorly for the Timberwolves. A four-point halftime lead on Tuesday night turned into a 26-point loss after a dreadful second half where the Wolves seemed to have no answers for the top-seeded Thunder on either end of the floor. It was the type of performance that, to some, may have cast real doubt about Minnesota's ability to even stretch this series to six or seven games, much less win it.
Ahead of Game 2 this evening, we're here to look at things the other way. For Wolves fans perhaps in need of a boost of confidence heading into this one, here are four reasons to be optimistic about Minnesota's chances.
No, this is not the first time in these playoffs that we've said "surely the Wolves won't shoot that poorly again." They hit 20 percent of their threes in Game 2 against the Lakers, 15 percent in Game 5 of that series, and 17 percent in Game 1 against the Warriors. On Tuesday, they were at 29 percent, going 15 of 51 (an NBA record for attempts in a conference finals game).
But they've also shot 36 percent or better from three in each of their other seven games in these playoffs, including four games above 42 percent. The Wolves were fourth in three-point percentage during the regular season despite being fifth in attempts. They're a great outside shooting team that has had more cold nights than usual during this postseason. Although they might not want to take 51 again, they have to remain confident in those shots, especially when they're generating as many open looks as they did in Game 1.
39 of Minnesota's 51 threes were considered "open." They made 11 of those. 30 were considered "wide open." They made eight of those. It feels inevitable that they'll hit those looks at a higher rate in Game 2, considering the track record of their shooters. Specifically, they need their bench trio — Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — to be a lot better after they were 5 for 28 from deep (and 4 for 24 on open threes) in Game 1.
Reid was a 38 percent shooter in the regular season who was above 45 percent in the playoffs before his stinker. DiVincenzo has had a rough postseason, but he's been a 40 percent three-point shooter in three straight regular seasons and figures to find a groove at some point. Alexander-Walker has been a 38 percent shooter two years in a row. Those three have to keep firing and trust that they'll go in this time.
This one is certainly speculative. But after so much of the post-Game 1 conversation was centered around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's foul-baiting antics and the refs rewarding the Thunder superstar with questionable whistles, you'd think things might be called a bit differently in Game 2. Veterans Scott Foster and Tony Brothers are among the officiating crew this evening. They'll be aware of the discourse and how the Wolves felt about the way Tuesday's game was called.
It feels like Foster is the type of ref who won't want to bail SGA out by rewarding his flailing attempts at drawing fouls. The NBA won't want that to dominate the conversation again. All the Timberwolves are asking is that things be called the same at both ends. If the refs are going to let Alex Caruso and Lu Dort and other OKC defenders be handsy and physical, then let Wolves players defend that way against SGA, too. If they're going to call ticky-tack fouls when SGA has the ball, do it when Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have the ball, too.
Randle had a huge first half in Game 1 and finished with 28 points, continuing his incredible postseason. Edwards, meanwhile, was pretty quiet. He had just 18 points on 13 shot attempts. Typically, he doesn't stay quiet for long.
Tuesday was Edwards' ninth playoff game (out of 38) scoring fewer than 20 points. The previous eight times, he's averaged 29.4 points in the following game. When he scored 18 in Game 1 against the Nuggets in 2023, he followed that with 41 in Game 2. After a 15-point Game 2 against the Suns in last year's first round, he went for 36 in Game 3. He had 19 points in last year's Game 3 against the Nuggets, then went for 44 in Game 4.
Edwards is certainly going to shoot more. His 13 shots were tied for the second-fewest in his playoff career. One thing he said after the game is that he might need to play off the ball a bit more to counter the Thunder's on-ball defense. The Wolves need Edwards to make the right play and not try to force things. But they also need their superstar to find ways to get downhill and be more aggressive as a scorer. If they win Game 2, it probably starts with a big Ant game.
The Wolves have shown a lot of resilience and toughness over the course of this season. They stuck it out when things were rocky early in the season, eventually finding their stride at the right time late in the campaign. Since March 2, they're 25-7. They haven't lost back-to-back games in over two months (March 17-19) and bounced back from each of their two previous losses in these playoffs.
To be clear, the Thunder are easily the best team the Wolves have played this season. They're very much on another level than the Lakers and the Steph Curry-less Warriors. But this Wolves team has a lot of justified confidence in itself. They absolutely believe they can beat the Thunder if they make some adjustments and execute better. Chris Finch has proven to be an excellent coach who will push the right buttons. The Wolves have an eight-man rotation full of guys who are eager to bounce back.
They have to take better care of the basketball, attack the rim more, hit open shots when they get them, and stop fouling as much on the defensive end. If they can do those things, they'll have a great chance to win this one and steal home-court advantage as these teams come back to Minnesota for Games 3 and 4.