Dawson Knox’s dynasty outlook has such a wide range of potential outcomes over the next 20 months that his fantasy football managers probably have a headache. The tight end’s time with the Buffalo Bills may be coming to an end, but that only adds another layer of uncertainty about his future value.
Knox is entering the second season of a three-year, $29.5 million contract. The Bills can save $9.7 million against the salary cap by releasing him next offseason, though. That’s a virtually guaranteed outcome given Buffalo’s limited financial flexibility in the coming years.
Yet, the 2022 Pro Bowl selection shouldn’t be totally written off from a fantasy perspective. That’s especially true if fellow tight end Dalton Kincaid struggles again in 2025.
Dawson Knox Dynasty Outlook (2025 Fantasy Football)
Bills Star’s Current Production
Knox emerged as a highly reliable asset across the 2021 and 2022 seasons after a sluggish start to his NFL career. Here’s a look at his production in those campaigns:
2021: 49 catches for 587 yards and 9 TDs
2022: 48 catches for 517 yards and 6 TDs
Just as Knox began to establish himself as an impact fantasy commodity, however, the Bills selected Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 draft. It created a timeshare at the position that sapped the 28-year-old Ole Miss product’s value.
Here is a reminder of how underrated Dawson Knox is #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/kTjTcgjZ2I
— SleeperBills (@SleeperBills) May 21, 2025
The veteran pass-catcher has recorded just 44 receptions and three touchdowns in 29 appearances over the past two seasons. He posted more than two catches just once last year. It made him unrosterable in re-draft fantasy leagues and likely led many dynasty managers to drop him, too.
Dawson Knox Dynasty Price
Dawson Knox
Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox (88) makes a catch against Kansas City Chiefs safety Jaden Hicks (21) during the second half in the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Knox is currently rated as the No. 291 overall fantasy player and the No. 40 tight end on the dynasty ranking website KeepTradeCut. His value has remained steady throughout the offseason despite Buffalo’s selection of another tight end, Jackson Hawes, in the draft.
Dawson Knox Dynasty Outlook Amid Uncertain Future
While Knox is almost assuredly playing his final season in Buffalo—a massive contract restructure and/or pay cut is the only avenue to stay beyond 2025—that doesn’t mean he won’t be productive this season. Everything depends on the development of Kincaid.
The Las Vegas native hasn’t lived up to expectations since the Bills picked him two years ago. He’s only scored four touchdowns in 29 games, and he hasn’t been a difference-making weapon against man coverage for MVP quarterback Josh Allen as the organization had hoped.
That’s allowed Knox to remain a contributor despite being in a backup role. Looking ahead, it’s not unreasonable to believe he’ll see an increased snap share this season if Kincaid fails to take a significant step forward in Year 3.
Dawson Knox’s 14.1 yards per reception ranked among the top for tight ends with at least 20 catches.
OLD RELIABLE 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/NiZkThQdgO
— BillsMuse (@BillsMusee) May 12, 2025
The Bills are firmly in win-now mode. Every year that goes by with Allen in his prime and the franchise not capturing its first Super Bowl title is a failure. Deep playoff runs are no longer good enough. It’s championship or bust in Buffalo for the foreseeable future.
In turn, roles are going to change if a player like Kincaid isn’t performing. That could allow Knox to regain his starting role and allow him to re-emerge as a fantasy player worth rostering. It’d also put him in a position to sign somewhere as an unquestioned No. 1 option on a depth chart next year.
What To Do With Bills’ Tight End in Dynasty Leagues
Now seems like an ideal time to buy low on Knox. He’s the exact type of player fantasy managers want at the bottom of their roster. Someone with a history of solid production who can climb the rankings quickly if a few things fall their way.
In Knox’s case, his upside in 2025 will be limited by the Bills’ “everybody eats” approach. That said, he’s currently a fantasy afterthought in all formats. He can be acquired cheaply via trade or for nothing on the free-agent market. The investment cost is minimal. Managers basically lose nothing if adding him turns into a bust.
Here is the Buffalo Bills current offense#BillsMafia
QB: Josh Allen
RB: James Cook
RB: Ray Davis
RB: Ty Johnson
WR: Khalil Shakir
WR: Keon Coleman
WR: Josh Palmer
WR: Elijah Moore
WR: Curtis Samuel
TE: Dalton Kincaid
TE: Dawson Knox
Is this the best offence in the league? 🦬 pic.twitter.com/I3g6yuch5A
— SleeperBills (@SleeperBills) April 29, 2025
If the tight end does earn a bigger role, his value could rise swiftly. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him ultimately be a low-end weekly fantasy starter. That’s extremely valuable at a weak position.
Then, beyond this year, a bounce-back statistical campaign would allow him to enter free agency on a high note. Given the limited number of impact tight ends, there’s a good chance Knox lands somewhere next year where his target number would jump substantially.
Put it all together, and his current TE40 ranking could look ridiculously low by the time the 2026 season gets underway. That’s what dynasty leagues are all about: finding future value.
Knox should provide managers with plenty of bang for the buck in the coming years.
Main Image: Tina Maclntyre-Yee – USA Today Sports