Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals produced mixed results for the Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop bets we recommended.
Julius Randle made sure we didn't come up empty, as he carried the Minnesota offense with 28 points (easily cashing over 20.5 points at +110), while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander came up just a point shy of clearing 31.5 points.
Naz Reid, however, had a night to forget (4 points on 1-for-11 shooting, 0-for-7 3PT).
In Game 2, we have our eyes on Anthony Edwards, but not as a scorer, as we'll explain below.
And although SGA failed to cash the scoring prop we gave out in Game 1, we expect a much better shooting night in Game 2 from the MVP favorite, so we're going back to him.
A. Edwards Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (+106 at FD) -- 1 unit
Based on Game 1, the Wolves are going to have a tough time answering the two biggest questions in this series:
Can they take care of the basketball well enough to take down OKC? ❌ So far, so not good -- they had 17 TOs in Game 1.
Will they shoot well enough to force the Thunder to play them honest? ❌ A simple "no" doesn't quite describe how poorly Minnesota shot the basketball Tuesday night, as it went 15-for-51 despite a slew of open looks.
Given those struggles, we'll believe Edwards will have the space in the paint to get to the rim when we see it. But the Wolves are a good shooting team, and I don't see them shooting below 30 percent from outside two games in a row, especially if they get as many open looks as they did in Game 1.
Per ESPN Research, Minnesota made just 11 of its 39 open 3-pointers in Game 1, as key bench players Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker shot just 4-for-24 on open 3-pointers.
With just an average 3-point shooting night by his typically reliable teammates, Edwards should be able to reach, if not exceed, his playoff average of 5.6 assists per game. And remember, he had at least seven assists in three of four regular-season matchups vs. OKC this year.
As long as gets a handful of assists , Edwards -- who is averaging just over 8 rebounds per game in the playoffs, with at least 7 boards in 8/11 playoff games -- should be able to comfortably reach 13 total R+A.
His 9 rebounds in Game 1 came in just 36 minutes. And after averaging nearly 41 minutes vs. the Lakers in the first round and nearly 39 vs. the Warriors in the second, 36 minutes probably represents his floor in terms of playing time.
As for this prop specifically, Edwards has finished 7-of-11 playoff games this year with at least 13 R+A. He's also reached 15 total R+A in 6-of-11 postseason games to date.
During the regular season, for what it's worth, Edwards averaged 15.25 total R+A vs. the Thunder, with 14, 17 and 21 R+A in the last three MIN-OKC matchups of the year (and keep in mind that Minnesota played three of those games without either Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle or Rudy Gobert).
With that in mind, also consider Anthony Edwards Over 13.5 R+A (+162 at FD).
S. Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ Points (+155 at bet365) -- 0.75 units
We don't need to dig too deep into advanced metrics to explain why SGA is well-positioned for another big scoring night.
After scoring 37 points or more in three of the four regular-season clashes between these teams, the MVP favorite finished with "just" 31 points in Game 1.
If anything, though, the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander scored that many despite shooting just 10-for-27 (37 percent) from the floor, including 0-for-4 from 3, is good reason to back him in Game 2.
After drawing four quick fouls in the first five minutes of Game 1, I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to do the same thing in Game 2 unless Minnesota opts to give him space on the perimeter.
If Jaden McDaniels, who fouled out of Game 1 with over five minutes to play, and the Wolves adopt the latter approach, expect SGA -- who shot 10-for-18 from 3 vs. Minnesota in the regular season amid a 37-percent 3-point shooting campaign -- to cash in with at least a couple made triples.
Gilgeous-Alexander has only made 27.4 percent of his 5.2 3PA per game this postseason, but he was more than effective enough to keep Denver honest (10-of-30 from 3 in the series, including 5-for-8 combined in Games 6 and 7).
In case you're wondering, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ Made Threes is currently available at odds as short as -110 at DraftKings.
I digress, but there's good reason to believe OKC's top weapon is ripe for a good night from outside. And even if that doesn't happen, he's going to be a tempting bet to pile up the points until McDaniels and whoever else is assigned to him find an answer for his unorthodox style.
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This story was originally published May 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM.