The 49ers didn't have to extend Fred Warner this offseason, but market conditions opened the door for them to take advantage of doing so.
Future Hall of Fame linebacker Fred Warner didn't actively need a contract extension from the San Francisco 49ers this offseason. After all, the 28-year-old perennial All-Pro was under contract through 2026, meaning he still had two more seasons locked in with the Niners.
Yet San Francisco extended him anyway, inking him to a three-year extension worth up to $63 million. The $21 million per-year annual average puts him back atop the list of off-ball linebackers, a spot he occupied after his first contract extension back in 2021.
Warner's deal flew under the radar, at least nationally, thanks to the 49ers' high-profile extension for quarterback Brock Purdy.
But, while Purdy's new deal was heavily influenced by the ever-expanding market for starting quarterbacks, Warner's own contract fell in the context of a deflated market.
OK, it's time for some NFL economics. Get ready.
49ers took advantage of stagnant LB market in new Fred Warner deal
The fact the Niners didn't need to extend Warner but did anyway speaks measures, and it's not only because of the franchise's newfound cost-cutting measures from earlier this offseason.
Joel Corry, a former NFL agent who now writes contract-specific pieces for CBS Sports, dove into how the market value for off-ball linebackers has been awfully flat in recent years, revealing how high-profile players at this position simply don't receive the kind of compensation other top defenders would in other roles.
Corry wrote:
"The salary cap has grown 40.87% over the past five years from $198.2 million in 2020 to currently $279.2 million. The top of the off-ball linebacker market has increased by just 16.67% since the current NFL collective bargaining agreement was ratified in March 2020. The 16.67% is the worst growth among any position during this span."
If San Francisco was heading toward salary-cap hell, an extension for Warner now would have made much more sense. But, according to Over the Cap, the 49ers boast nearly $40 million in available cap space, third most in the wake of Purdy's contract, which means this wasn't a cause for the linebacker's extension.
Instead, it's likely the Niners understood two things:
Warner remains the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL (and deserves to be compensated as such)
The LB market is flat, meaning now is the time for worthy investing
Granted, Corry pointed out how the linebacker market probably isn't going to skyrocket anytime soon, especially in the wake of defensive linemen and cornerbacks being primary beneficiaries of cap increases and defensive overspend.
But, someone like the Baltimore Ravens' Roquan Smith could ultimately surpass Warner in 2026, and it's easy to connect the dots and realize San Francisco wanted to get ahead of that possibility now instead of waiting another year for the market to change.
As such, despite it being a market-resetting extension, Warner remains a relatively cheap investment, especially when viewed across the entirety of defensive spending.
Read more from Niner Noise