Western Conference Finals betting underdog Minnesota hardly looked overmatched vs. NBA Finals favorite Oklahoma City early in Game 1.
But after jumping out to a 23-20 first quarter lead and taking a 48-44 lead to the locker room at halftime, the Timberwolves lost the second half of Game 1, 70-40, raising questions about the competitiveness of this series going forward.
Stop me if you've already heard this ad nauseam, but this matchup will likely be decided by whether Minnesota A) avoids turnovers and B) makes enough 3-pointers to force the Oklahoma City defense to adjust its strategy.
Minnesota failed on both those fronts in Game 1, especially 3-point shooting, and it will need a much better performance in Game 2 to keep this series interesting.
Wolves vs. Thunder Game 2 Betting Odds
DK FD bet365
MIN spread +7.5 (-112) +7.5 (-114) +7.5 (-110)
OKC spread -7.5 (-108) -7.5 (-106) -7.5 (-110)
MIN ML +235 +245 +240
OKC ML -290 -300 -300
Total 216.5 (o-110; u-110) 217 (o-110; u-110) 217 (o-110; u-110)
How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 2
Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Wolves vs. Thunder Game 2 Pick, Analysis
It's hard to pick against the Thunder, even though the fixes Minnesota needs to make aren't complicated.
The Wolves need to take fewer than 51 3-pointers tonight, but the biggest issue on Tuesday night was not how many they took, but how poorly they shot the ball (15-for-51 from deep).
It's safe to assume Minnesota will do a better jop capitalizing on its open 3-pointers tonight after it knocked down just 11 of its 39 open 3PA in Game 1, per ESPN Research.
At the same time, we should note that such performances have been a common occurrence among teams facing the Thunder.
OKC allowed a ton of 3-point attempts (39.3 per game) but boasted the lowest opposing 3-point shooting percentage (34.2 percent) in the league in the regular season. So no, it's not a coincidence that Denver in the last round and Minnesota (so far in this round) have largely struggled from the perimeter vs. OKC.
"Avoid turnovers and knock down open 3-pointers" sounds easy enough on paper for the Timberwolves. But that will be much harder in reality due to the incredible size, athleticism and depth of the Thunder.
At this point, regardless of the opponent, it is also unrealistic to expect the Wolves -- who have turned it over 82 times in their last four games dating back to Game 3 of the conference semifinals vs. the Warriors -- to dramatically reduce their turnovers.
Defensively, yet another concern for Minnesota is that OKC finished Game 1 with 114 points on just 11 made 3-pointers.
It's also worth noting that the Thunder scored with ease (56.7 effective FG percentage) -- especially in the second half -- despite a poor shooting night by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (10-for-27 FG, 0-for-4 3PT).
So, while the Timberwolves certainly can play much better than they did in Game 1, the same can be said for the Thunder, even after a 26-point series-opening victory.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 2 Best Bets
I'm not yet ready to rule out the Wolves winning a game or two in this series. I think they're going to end up losing Game 2 by a wide margin, though, even if they're able to keep it close for a half or more.
The quality Game 1 contribution OKC got from reserve Kenrich Williams (he finished with plus-19 in 10 minutes on Tuesday night) showed that this team might be even deeper than we thought. The Thunder's depth over 48 minutes should make the difference tonight, even if Minnesota manages to shoot much better from 3-point land.
Oklahoma City to go over its team total and Oklahoma City to cover the fourth-quarter spread strike me as the best plays in this game.
While it's hard to shake the feeling that betting on the Thunder to cover alt spreads like 15 or 20 points will result in a few big winners in this series, I'm going to show the Wolves (and the power of Game 2 coaching adjustments) some respect and stay away from those plays for tonight.
Thunder TT Over 112.5 (-105 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Thunder 4Q -1.5 (-104 at FD) -- 1 unit
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This story was originally published May 22, 2025 at 4:43 PM.