If the rest of the games in Pacers vs. Knicks are anywhere near as high-possession and high-scoring as Indiana's thrilling 138-135 overtime win in Game 1, player prop bettors are going to be feasting throughout the Eastern Conference Finals.
Following huge series-opening performances by Tyrese Haliburton (31 points, 11 assists), Aaron Nesmith (30 points on 8-for-9 3-point shooting), Jalen Brunson (43 points, 5 assists) and Karl-Anthony Towns (35 points, 12 rebounds), is the best approach in Game 2 to stick to the biggest names in this matchup?
Or are there better options in tonight's must-see Game 2 at Madison Square Garden?
While the Pacers had no answer for Brunson, who is coming off a 40-point night despite shooting 1-for-6 from 3-point land, his points prop is easy to resist at 29.5, with the over priced at -120 or shorter across the board.
Towns, on the other hand, is worth sticking with. He has now lit up the Pacers for 21, 30, 40 and 35 points in four IND vs. NYK matchups this year.
Karl-Anthony Towns 25+ Points (+108 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Towns' counting stats alone in four games vs. the Pacers are all anyone considering backing him needs to know.
Before we go any further, here's a close look at his game-by-game numbers vs. Indiana this year.
Karl-Anthony Towns Stats vs. Indiana
Pts Rebs FG (%) 3pt (%) FT (%) Minutes eFG%
ECF Game 1 (May 21) 35 12 11/17 (64.7) 4/8 (50) 9/11 (81.8) 39:09 76.5
Feb. 11 40 12 14/23 (60.9) 3/8 (37.5) 9/9 (100) 38:16 67.4
Nov. 10 30 9 11/19 (57.9) 2/5 (40) 6/8 (75) 38:52 63.2
Oct. 25 21 15 5/11 (45.5) 2/2 (100) 9/10 (90) 32:17 54.5
As you can see above, he has shot 57 percent or better from the floor on at least 17 FGA in each of the last three meetings between these teams.
And NBA.com's matchup numbers from Game 1 make it even harder to shake the feeling that KAT has a good chance to go for 30 points or more in every game of this series.
In Game 1, Myles Turner once again guarded Towns more than anyone for the Pacers. That matchup was disastrous for the Pacers in the regular season (as we detailed in our Game 1 props piece).
Turner was once again unable to slow Towns down in Game 1, as he finished with 18 points and two assists on 7-for-9 FG shooting (3-for-3 from 3) in 34 partial possessions vs. Turner.
The bigger problem for the Pacers is that Towns was also able to exploit Pascal Siakam, with 11 points on 4-for-4 FG shooting (1-1 from 3) in just 13 partial possesions.
While Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith held up OK in limited action vs. Towns in Game 1 -- Toppin for 11.5 partial possessons and Nesmith for 7.2 -- neither the 6-foot-9, 220-pound Toppin nor Nesmith (6-foot-6, 215 pounds) are well-suited to guard the Knicks' 7-foot, 250-pound All-Star center 1-on-1.
There's no wrong way to bet on Towns in this series, but the safest play in Game 2 that offers some value is to take him to get to 25 points. At plus-money, that's outstanding value for a player who A) averaged 24.4 ppg in the regular season and B) is exploiting a tantalizing matchup.
Aaron Nesmith 3+ Made Threes (+140 at bet365) -- 0.75 units
The second-best player prop bet in this game doesn't feel like quite as much of a slam-dunk as Towns to have a big night, but it is plenty tempting in its own right.
Nesmith is coming off a historic 8-for-9 night from outside in Game 1. That's not the only reason we expect him to stay hot -- if not scorching -- in Game 2, though.
Nesmith was quietly outstanding in the Pacers' first-round drubbing of the Bucks, and he also got off to a hot start in the conference semifinals vs. the Cavaliers.
He made 14-of-27 3-pointers (51.8 percent) over five games vs. Milwaukee in the first round. He then reached another level in Games 1 and 2 vs. the Pacers, draining 9 of 14 3PA as Indiana jumped out to a 2-0 lead in that series.
He knocked down just 4-of-15 3PA in Games 3, 4 and 5 as the Cavs did a better job defending him. Still, he finished that series at an outstanding 13-for-27 (48.1 percent) on 3-pointers.
We spelled those numbers to back up the claim that what he did in Game 1 was no fluke (though there's no denying that another 30-point night with a handful of desperation 3s in the final minutes is unlikely).
What we do expect based on both his rock-solid regular-season shooting numbers on moderate volume (43.1 percent from 3 on 4.3 3PA per game) and his eye-popping playoff 3-point shooting on heavier volume (53.8 percent on 5.9 3PA per game) is at least another handful of clean looks on Friday night.
It's an understatement to say that the word is out among Pacers opponents about Nesmith. Stil, denying him is easier said than done, as Haliburton's gifts as a passer -- plus Indiana's fast pace and ability to spread the floor -- make it nearly impossible for the opposition to lock in on Nesmith.
A look at the shots Nesmith took throughout the Pacers and Bucks series makes it clear that if there were ever a case where 50 percent 3-point shooting were sustainable, it would be Nesmith in this offense right now. Even in his 1-for-7 3-point shooting night in Game 5 vs. the Cavaliers, the quality of his looks was undeniable, as he took four open corner 3s.
Nesmith is not only red-hot, but getting consistent volume (at least 6 3PA in 6 of the last 10 games) and minutes (30-plus per game throughout the postseason). That makes him a great bet -- especially at +140 -- to make at least three 3-pointers for the seventh time in playoff 12 games tonight.
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This story was originally published May 23, 2025 at 10:30 AM.