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Murderball, moneyball and the blueprints for Derby County to beat the system

Ipswich Town celebrate their promotion to the Premier League back in 2024.

Ipswich Town celebrate their promotion to the Premier League back in 2024.

David Clowes' long-term ambition for Derby County is to eventually challenge for a place in the Premier League, and that plan remains on course.

The next item to tick off the to-do list is to be an established team in the Championship having survived their first season back in the second tier owed to the work of John Eustace.

Ever since he was handed the keys to the manager's office following Paul Warne's departure, Derby's head coach has openly admitted that his desire is to take them back to the promised land.

Derby's last experience of the top flight was the infamous 2007-08 season when they fell through the trapdoor having been regarded as the worst team to ever sit at English football's top table.

Seventeen years have passed without feasting on its riches with Frank Lampard's class of 2019 being the last time they were tantalisingly close to a return.

But making that ascent will present a series of challenges to conquer none more so than the parachute payments that Premier League clubs receive upon relegation.

Should Sheffield United win the play-off final at Wembley, then they will join Burnley in gracing Old Trafford, Anfield and the Emirates again after losing their top-flight status this time last year.

But cash isn't always king, and there have been exceptions to the rule that relegated Premier League teams stand the best chance of promotion. Under Kieran McKenna, Ipswich marched through League One and then the Championship in successive seasons to show what can be done with a modest level of investment, good recruitment and exceptional coaching.

In fact, there have still been six clubs since 2018 who have pulled off a near-miracle and won promotion without parachute payments. Sunderland will be hoping to make it seven this afternoon as underdogs in a play-off final against Sheffield United.

A sprinkling of managerial genius, team spirit and savvy recruitment – and, crucially, big gambles paying off – have beaten the trend.

Sheffield United (2018/19)

Secured automatic promotion under manager Chris Wilder by finishing second, celebrating on the pitch on the final day at the bet365 Stadium.

Wilder had guided Sheff Utd up from the depths of League One with tactical innovations including overlapping centre-halves and the core of the group stayed together. He beat Pep Guardiola to that year’s LMA manager of the year award.

Strike pair Billy Sharp and David McGoldrick scored a combined 38 goals and cost a combined £635,000.

“I would like to think we have struck a blow for recruitment, training ground, teaching and all the other stuff which goes on behind the scenes – there is no chequebook culture,” said Wilder at the time.

Leeds United (2019/20)

Leeds returned to the Premier League after a 16-year absence when they were guided to the title by Marcelo Bielsa, having narrowly missed out in his debut campaign. Before his arrival, they had been in the Championship for eight seasons without finishing higher than seventh.

Bielsa transformed an underperforming squad in an incredible display of coaching, with Liam Cooper, Stuart Dallas and Luke Ayling, as well as Kalvin Phillips, suddenly becoming super-fit Championship superstars.

Stamina was honed in Bielsa’s infamous ‘murderball’ training sessions and there were crucial late goals as they out-ran and swarmed opponents, pressing relentlessly.

Brentford (2020/21)

Brentford went up via the play-offs under Thomas Frank, with a team spearheaded by 33-goal Ivan Toney. It would be their first appearance in the top flight in 74 years.

They reaped the benefits of a data-driven recruitment strategy in the style of Moneyball, driven by owner Matthew Benham – but they were still gambling more than they could legitimately afford under FFP rules if they had lost that day at Wembley.

EFL chairman Rick Parry said: “If you look at the amount of money that Championship clubs routinely spend on average on wages, it’s in excess of 100 per cent of turnover. If you go back to Brentford, it was nearly 250 per cent, Brighton was in excess of 150 per cent.

“If you roll the dice and gamble and get promoted, people might argue it’s worthwhile. The converse of that is if you look at the likes of Derby County or Reading even, who had a go and paid well over the odds in wages, didn’t make it and for whatever reason owners decide they are not going to keep on doing it anymore.”

Nottingham Forest (2021/22)

Chris Hughton was fired after Forest had taken just one point from their first seven games to sit bottom of the table, leaving Steve Cooper to take over the reins on September 21, 2021. Cooper revitalised the team and went up through the play-offs, ending a 23-year Premier League absence.

Young players such as Brennan Johnson came to the fore while there were successful loan spells for players such as James Garner (Manchester United), Djed Spence (Middlesbrough), Keinan Davis (Aston Villa) and Philip Zinckernagel (Watford).

The final at Wembley against Huddersfield was still tight and tense. A Levi Colwill own goal gave Forest the lead and referee John Moss controversially refused Huddersfield a penalty when Harry Toffolo appeared to have been fouled by Jack Colback.

Captain Joe Worrall said: “I keep using the expression of being like a whipped dog. If you treat any dog with kindness, they become a nice dog. If you mistreat one then they’re aggressive and we were, we’ve been a mistreated team.”

Forest then splurged on transfers to try to stay up and were docked four points in 2023/24 for breaching profit and sustainability rules – and were fortunate that Luton, Burnley and Sheff Utd performed so miserably that they could survive with as few as 32 points.

Luton Town (2022/23)

Luton made a remarkable rise from non-league to Premier League in less than a decade, largely led by Nathan Jones – who took them from the bottom half of League Two the cusp of the Championship, then returned after a horror spell at Stoke to save them from relegation back to League One and set them on their way to make the final leap.

Rob Edwards, who took over from Southampton-bound Jones in November 2022, got the job done by beating Coventry in the play-off final. They were a powerful and athletic side that was hard to beat, direct and strong in transitions – they averaged 45 per cent possession.

Still, they spent 150 per cent of their revenue on wages in order to try to make that final push. They were relegated after one season and have now gone straight down again.

Ipswich Town (2023/24)

Ipswich’s ascendance to the Premier League began under the different financial rules of League One, putting together a squad that thrived playing to Kieran McKenna’s high energy style. They were aggressive in the press and very fit, scoring 26 goals after the 75th minute.

Leif Davis, who had joined from Leeds in 2022, chipped in with 18 assists from left-back.

Steven Schumacher had pipped Ipswich to the League One title in 2023 and spoke about how Plymouth had then been in a fight to stay in the Championship while Ipswich got into the top two.

He said: “Continuity, consistency, a really good team spirit. Ipswich had Championship players in League One. They had Sam Morsy, who they signed from the Championship, and Massimo Luongo, and those two played pretty much every week. They bought centre-backs like George Edmundson in League One who had a good reputation; Nathan Broadhead, who Championship teams wanted but they managed to sign for £3m. They then went and got George Hirst on loan in League One and made him permanent.

“They had some Championship standard players in my opinion, really good players in League One and obviously they’ve got a fantastic, talented manager who has got them playing, organised so they know exactly what they’re doing. They never change the system. It was just a well-oiled machine with good players and good personalities.

“I was surprised they got automatic promotion but I wasn’t overly surprised that they were up there and competing for the top six. If someone had asked me if Ipswich could go again I would have said yes, with the budget they had – and how they added to the squad. They signed Omari Hutchinson, they signed Jeremy Sarmiento. They recruited really well. They brought in Jack Taylor from Peterborough for £3m who every Championship club would have wanted and he couldn’t get in their team. They are a real success story.”

What do Derby need to win promotion to the Premier League? Have your say HERE.

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