In the race for the top five, Newcastle, Man City and Chelsea have their destiny in their own hands.
While Arsenal are not mathematically guaranteed second place, they would have to lose to Southampton, Man City win, and there be a swing in goal difference of eight goals for second place to change.
Due to goal difference, Man City only need a point at Craven Cottage. If they lose, they need two out of Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa not to win.
Newcastle are practically guaranteed a place in the top five if they win because their goal difference is superior to Aston Villa. If they do not, they either need Villa not to better their result at Old Trafford or for there not to be a winner at the City Ground.
Chelsea’s fate is also in their own hands. They just need to at least match or better Villa’s result.
Villa need to get a better result than one of the three clubs above them.
Forest need to beat Chelsea and hope either Villa or Newcastle do not win.
Chelsea need to finish outside of the top five for there to be a chance that eighth in the table could be enough for a place in Europe. Brighton only need a point. Brentford need to win and hope the Seagulls lose. If that happens, eighth would then need Chelsea to win the UEFA Conference Final.
Matchday Drama: Final Fixtures Overview
Cherries 3-1 Leicester
Just when Leicester thought their season could not get any worse, the Premier League has referred them to an independent panel for alleged breaches of FFP. If you were a Foxes fan, you just wanted to get to the summer and regroup. Now you face a points deduction in the Championship.
The mood of these two clubs could not be more contrasting. The test for the Cherries now will be to hang on to their manager and key talent. That is a compliment to how well they have done. Worst case, at least they can demand decent money for their players. They are getting 50 million for Huijsen.
Fulham 1-2 Man City
Because of their goal difference, Man City only need a point to secure Champions League football. If they had to play under the pressure of needing a win, this might have been a banana skin. The jeopardy might reduce as the afternoon progresses and they hear scores from around the grounds. Either way, you sense Pep Guardiola’s side will look different come August. Their owners have standards and will not tolerate falling under them. Compare what they did in January to the Kroenke family.
Ipswich 2-0 West Ham
The fact that Ipswich are relegated, yet there will likely be more spirit and togetherness from the home side, tells you where West Ham are at. I really thought Potter would be a great appointment for them but they remain a club without an identity. It is only because the five below them have been so poor that more has not been mentioned. Some might say, given how David Moyes was treated, certain Hammers do not deserve anything less.
Liverpool 2-1 Palace
There are fixtures this weekend that do not have a lot of jeopardy. Some teams will already be on holiday. Very rarely though do you get a game where both sides’ fans are turning up for a party and, no matter the result, they will be celebrating long into the summer. Liverpool are about to lift the Premiership, Palace won their first ever trophy last Saturday. This will be the Community Shield.
Man United 1-3 Aston Villa
Could there be a better time to go to Old Trafford? You are 16th in the table, do not even have 40 points and have just lost a final of a secondary European competition to a Spurs team who did not even play well. Credit to any home fans who attend this Sunday. Of course, it all depends on how the visitors react to hearing goal updates from elsewhere, but the points are theirs to throw away. They would kick themselves if any of the three above them slip up and they have not taken advantage.
Newcastle 2-0 Everton
If you offered any Geordie the chance to qualify for the Champions League with a home win on the final day (with a trophy in the cabinet), they would have bitten your hand off. The biggest compliment I can give Eddie Howe is that you now trust the Magpies to handle the pressure of occasions like this. Especially with a packed St James’ Park.
Notts Forest 1-1 Chelsea
One of the hardest games this weekend to predict because a lot depends on what happens elsewhere. Forest have to win to have any chance of breaking into the top five, which means they have to be on the front foot, something that is outside their comfort level. So if it is a draw with 15 minutes to go, is that enough for Chelsea or do they also have to chase the winner?
Saints 0-4 Arsenal
After coming out with some strange statements after the PSG and Liverpool fixtures, I am relieved that it appears Mikel Arteta just needed a week to take a breath. What is crucial is that our manager goes on holiday and has the ability to self-evaluate and learn from his mistakes. With zero consequences on this fixture, Arsenal should win comfortably at a club relegated with just 12 points. The Gunners playing well when the pressure is off? Some might say that happens too often.
Spurs 1-2 Brighton
I am not sure what state Spurs players and fans will be in come Sunday. This game means more to the visitors, especially if they hear Chelsea are falling out of the top five, which could mean eighth is enough for Europe. It would be kind of fitting if the home side did not care about the Premier League, as that has been the case for months. What would the odds have been at the start of the season that Tottenham would finish 16th or 17th in the League? Then imagine the odds of them finishing 16th or 17th yet being so happy.
Wolves 3-2 Brentford
Home to Fulham was a real missed opportunity for Brentford to keep the race for eighth place alive. If they start to hear Chelsea or Brighton are winning, there becomes less significance on this game as the minutes tick by. There was a point this season where it looked like Wolves would be doing well to get to the final day and still have hope of surviving. I know he was not impressed with the defending in midweek but credit must go to Vitor Pereira for the turnaround.
If anyone wants to tactical vote, email admin to email me your scores
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J Gunner 215
Okobino 215
GB 214
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Antivirus 207
Ayan 206
JRA 206
Wale A 205
Ejs 204
Drayton 194
Baron 192
Sue P 192
Kenya 186
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Matthew 183
Solwills 179
Me 176
JS7RG 170
O Achiel 165
I 161
MTG 161
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NOAS 134
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Top 36 Qualify for Champions League
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Admin 69
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Alex 9
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Dotash 7
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Good luck peeps
Dan Smith
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