In four of the last seven seasons, All-Pro Christian McCaffrey has finished as a top-three fantasy running back, regardless of scoring format, with two finishes as the RB1 (2019 and 2023, by a big margin each time). In the other three seasons during that stretch, 2020, 2021 and 2024, he has played a total of 14 games.
McCaffrey was the clear No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football drafts last year. Then an Achilles issue surfaced as a concern on some level, before a surprise late scratch in Week 1 led to him not playing until Week 10. In his fourth game back, McCaffrey suffered a knee injury that ended his 2024 campaign.
By fantasy points per game last season, McCaffrey was not impressive (RB25 in full PPR, worse than that in 0.5-point PPR and standard scoring).
Still, if healthy (a big "if"), McCaffrey has as much fantasy upside as any running back--and any player at any position, until further notice.
The coming season is a big one for him, in a broader sense.
Fresh analysis further outlines risk-reward of Christian McCaffrey in the fantasy football realm
One one hand, the investment required to put McCaffrey on a fantasy roster in re-draft leagues this year will greatly reduce the risk of another season lost significantly to injury. For a subsection of fantasy owners, there's a solid case to trade him while the perception of his upside remains this year.
Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report went the opposite way of the latter idea, putting McCaffrey No. 2 on his recent list of "6 Players Fantasy Managers Should Target In Trades Before Their Stock Explodes."
"Yes, McCaffrey is nearly 29—an age where running backs historically begin to decline. And last year wasn’t the first time he missed a chunk of the season with an injury—McCaffrey has missed nine or more games three times. But an expert’s consensus ranking (ECR) of RB17 is just—what?"
"But McCaffrey has a fantasy ceiling most running backs can only dream of. From all indications, he’s fully healthy. And the 49ers appear set to make him a focal point of the offense again in 2025."
"Fantasy managers in “win now” mode should absolutely target McCaffrey—because the moment he hits the practice field and looks good doing it his asking price is going to spike."
Davenport referenced McCaffrey expert consensus ranking, via Fantasy Pros, with an assumed mistake/typo. He is now No. 16 overall (as of May 19; 0.5-point PPR), and RB7. A ranking befitting a second-round pick feels low for someone of McCaffrey's resume and upside, and if he shows he is healthy during OTAs and training camp practices his stock could soar.
There's regard for a manager's circumstance ingrained in both viewpoints. But the polar opposite thoughts of McCaffrey as a sell and buy candidate (with a dynasty tilt) fortifies the idea he is the most boom or bust player in fantasy football this year.
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