All the permutations explained on the final day of the Premier League season as City look to secure a return to the Champions League next season
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Pep Guardiola, Manager of Manchester City, embraces Eddie Howe, Manager of Newcastle United
Manchester City head to Fulham this afternoon looking to secure their place in next season's Champions League.
Pep Guardiola's side head into the final game of the season in third place knowing if they remain in the top five when the full time whistle blows at Craven Cottage they would have secured their place in Europe's premier competition.
City are on 68 points, two points ahead of fourth placed Newcastle, fifth placed Chelsea and sixth placed Aston Villa, who are all on 66 points.
Seventh placed Nottingham Forest are on 65 points and can also catch City, although it would take a pretty remarkable goal difference swing.
Newcastle host Everton at St James' Park, while Forest host Chelsea at the City Ground and Aston Villa will make the trip to face Manchester United.
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Put simply, if City win at Fulham they can't be caught and will finish the season in at least third place. It would lift City up to 71 points and if Arsenal (71 points) lose at Southampton then City could even finish second.
That would require a six-goal swing in terms of goal difference with City on +28 and Arsenal on +34 heading into the final day.
A draw will also be good enough for City, barring a minor miracle. That would lift them to 69 points and given Forest and Chelsea play each other, at least one of those teams will drop points and not be able to catch them.
Newcastle (+22) could only overtake City with a four goal win over Everton, Chelsea (+20) would require a six goal win over Forest and Villa (+9) would have to beat Manchester United by a 17-goal margin. All of those things would have to happen for City to fall out of the top five with a draw.
However, a defeat in West London would see them relying on results elsewhere. If they lost and all three of Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa won, that would move those three clubs up to 69 points and they would finish above City on 68 points. In that scenario, City would finish sixth and drop into the Europa League. If one of those teams fail to win then City would finish in the top five, even in defeat against Fulham.
In essence, City are in the strongest position out of the five teams battling it out for three Champions League spots. Fans of Newcastle, Chelsea, Villa and Forest can only hope they slip up in West London to allow them to take advantage.