With last weekend’s emotional farewell to Goodison Park well and truly in the rear-view mirror, Everton travel up to the North East in order to complete their Premier League schedule, against Newcastle United, this afternoon. The team’s final position, in 13th place, was cemented with the 2-0 win over Southampton, so ostensibly the Blues will just be playing for professional pride — although some players may be hoping for one last chance to leave a positive impression on boss David Moyes.
The Magpies will have seen bitter local rivals Sunderland secure a return to the top flight after eight years away, with their late victory over Sheffield United in the Championship playoff final at Wembley on Saturday, but will be more focused on themselves making it into next season’s Champions League. With five teams battling it out on the last day for the two remaining spots, they’ll be raucously backed, but no doubt feeling the nerves.
Form
The North East outfit struggled to handle a run in Europe last term, finishing seventh and missing out entirely on continental qualification, which impacted what they were able to do in the transfer market in the summer. PSR concerns saw the departure of academy product Elliot Anderson to Aston Villa for €41.2m and Everton target Yankubah Minteh to Brighton for €35m. The sole meaningful addition was the signing of Lewis Hall from Chelsea for €33m, the left back having spent the previous season on loan at the club.
This term, without the added games that European football requires, the Magpies have lasted the pace much better and largely avoided injuries to key players — with the worryingly fragile centre half Sven Botman being the sole exception. They’ve ridden out a couple of rocky patches - winless streaks of five and four in the autumn and early winter - and put together some strong sequences of good form, in winning blocks of six and five league games.
Arsenal v Newcastle United - Premier League - Emirates Stadium Declan Rice peels away in celebration after sinking the Magpies last weekend
Photo by Adam Davy/PA Images via Getty Images
Lifting the club’s first major silverware in 56 years, with a 2-1 EFL Cup Final victory over Liverpool, bolstered morale at just the right time, helping Newcastle to make a late push for the Champions League spots. However, they await Everton off a mixed recent run, having won two and lost two of their last five — including last Sunday’s 1-0 reverse to Arsenal, at the Emirates Stadium. The hosts sit in fourth place in the table, ahead of today’s match.
Style of Play
Eddie Howe is a fairly pragmatic manager, who will adapt his style of play to suit the demands of the moment, and the playing squad that he has available. He has stuck resolutely with a 4-3-3 system throughout the campaign, however, only switching to a 3-4-3 for the last couple of games — due to injuries at fullback and to key midfielder Joelinton, along with the desire, perhaps, to get both Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes on the pitch together.
This season Newcastle rank only tenth in terms of possession, with 50.2%, a drop-off from last term. Their pass completion percentage (83.5) ranks eleventh in the division, with 8.8% going long. They attack in a balanced way. Today’s hosts take 13.7 shots per 90 minutes (seventh ranked) and have scored 68 goals, an overperformance on an xG of 62.6 (fourth). At home, they are one of the most productive teams in the league, in scoring from both open play and set-pieces.
On defence, the Magpies allow 12.4 attempts by the opposition per 90 and have conceded 46 times, slightly more than an xGA of 44.4 (ranked fourth) would indicate that they should. They have no particular vulnerabilities in any defensive area, and have shipped only ten goals this term from open play at St. James’ — which ranks joint third.
Newcastle United FC v Chelsea FC - Premier League Tonali puts the hosts in front as they defeat Chelsea 2-0 in their last home outing
Photo by George Wood/Getty Images
Player Assessment
The reliable Nick Pope will be between the sticks. The 33-year-old is not an amazing shot-stopper, but is very active, being in the 94th-97th percentiles of goalkeepers in top leagues for stopping crosses, and defensive actions outside his area. With Newcastle likely to go with a back three again, they’ll deploy veterans Dan Burn and Fabian Schär either side of Botman, which presents a dominant aerial trio. Local hero Burn leads the side in clearances per 90 (5.25).
Tino Livramento will line up at left wingback. The one-time Everton target has recovered from his injury issues to cement a place in the starting eleven this term. On the opposite flank, winger Jacob Murphy will be playing out of position again. The experienced squad asset has enjoyed a unexpected breakout campaign, in which he’s started 30 league matches and made 20 goal contributions. In the centre, star midfielder Bruno Guimarães will line up alongside Sandro Tonali, with the Italian - banned for most of last season - a valuable contributor.
Alexander Isak faces a battle to be fit for the game. The striker has scored 23 goals, but if he can’t go then the soon to be out of contract Callum Wilson will deputize. The oft-injured 33-year-old has hurt Everton in the past, but has few minutes and no goals this season. In behind, deployed as inside forwards, or narrow wingers, will be Gordon and Barnes. The former has experienced a drop-off following a strong previous campaign, but is still dangerous and leads the team in completed crosses into the area per 90 (0.64). Barnes has recovered from an injury-blighted debut season for the Magpies to become a regular, and has nine goals this term.
Prediction
Newcastle need to at least match results with the chasing pack today, so the longer the game stays level, the greater the chance that scorelines from the other games will make their way into the St. James’ Park stands. This could affect the hosts, though they will almost certainly start fast, on the front foot, buoyed by the home crowd. It’s up to Everton to match their tempo in the early going and avoid making any costly errors, or being too passive. If they are still in the game after 15 or 20 minutes, then they can establish a foothold.
Everton FC v Southampton FC - Premier League The pressure will be on O’Brien as he starts alongside Keane for the first time
Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images
Moyes will be missing his preferred central defensive partnership, with both Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski out, leaving Jake O’Brien and Michael Keane. The two should be able to deal with Wilson, but if Isak plays he could give them fits. Add in the pace and direct running of Gordon and Barnes and this is a tough proposition for a makeshift defense, with Ashley Young almost certain to start at right back. Idrissa Gueye and James Garner will have their hands full with Guimarães and Tonali.
Who the Blues chief goes with in attack will be instructive, given we don’t know the fate of some who are not guaranteed to be at the club beyond today. Beto, who saw two goals ruled offside last week, will retain his place, and Iliman Ndiaye will certainly start, but will Carlos Alcaraz replace the departing Abdoulaye Doucouré? If he doesn’t, then it must cast doubt on Everton’s intent to buy him for the reported £12.5m fee agreed in his loan deal. That shortsightedness would worry me ahead of a busy summer rebuild. Dwight McNeil will likely play on the right again — in what is a trial run to see where he’ll fit in next season.
I expect the Toffees to give it a good go today, but that defence concerns me with the speed Newcastle possess in attack and the general goal threat in the team. I can’t see them upsetting the favourites.
Score: Newcastle 2-1 Everton
Statistics provided courtesy offbref.com,transfermarkt.com andwhoscored.com