Newcastle United’s Premier League season has come to an end and here’s where the Opta supercomputer predicted they would finish.
A sensational season has come to an end for Newcastle United, with a Champions League place finally being secured on the final day, though they nearly messed it all up.
Newcastle lost 1-0 to Everton in a dreadful performance, but Manchester United saved their bacon by controversially defeating Aston Villa to hand the Toon fifth place.
Yet, it’s still been Newcastle’s best season in decades as Eddie Howe’s side also brought the club’s 70-year wait for a trophy to an end by winning the Carabao Cup.
Not many predicted such a great campaign ahead of time and here’s where the Opta supercomputer thought they would finish in the league.
Photo by George Wood/Getty Images
Photo by George Wood/Getty Images
Opta supercomputer Premier League table prediction for 2024-25
To reach their prediction for the season, the Opta supercomputer simulated the entire 2024-25 Premier League campaign 10,000 times.
On 16.3% of those simulations, Newcastle finished fifth, which turned out to be bang on the money in their prediction for the club.
Elsewhere, Opta predicted Manchester City would win the league and that Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur would finish sixth and seventh, respectively.
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Those guesses couldn’t have been much more wrong, likewise with the prediction of Nottingham Forest finishing 17th. However, it did manage to get the three relegated sides right.
Opta predicted position Club Percentage chance of finishing in that position
1 Manchester City 82.2%
2 Arsenal 48.8%
3 Liverpool 40.2%
4 Chelsea 19.5%
5 Newcastle United 16.3%
6 Manchester United 14.1%
7 Tottenham Hotspur 12.3%
8 Aston Villa 11.1%
9 Crystal Palace 10.4%
10 West Ham United 9.5%
11 Brighton 9.4%
12 Fulham 10.1%
13 Everton 9.8%
14 Brentford 9.9%
15 Bournemouth 10.9%
16 Wolves 11.5%
17 Nottingham Forest 13.2%
18 Leicester City 16.8%
19 Ipswich Town 21.3%
20 Southampton 28.6%
Can Newcastle United win the Premier League next season?
The supercomputer gave Newcastle just a 0.1% chance of winning the title last season, but that figure will surely go up ahead of the 2025-26 campaign.
Despite an inconsistent start and eventually sliding to fifth, Newcastle were within touching distance of finishing as runners-up and proved capable of defeating anyone in the division.
The return of top European competition does bring its own pitfalls, though, as Newcastle know after their struggles in juggling Champions League and domestic campaigns in 2023-24.
It’s even harder now, with the first phase including more matches and running until January.
A big summer transfer window is crucial to improve the squad depth and quality for such a gruelling campaign. Thankfully, Newcastle will be able to spend more this year after their recent PSR struggles.
It’ll be tough to compete on so many fronts but, if they recruit well, Newcastle can certainly challenge for the title next season.