In NFL history, there is only one pairing of a rookie quarterback and a first year head coach who have gone on to win their division and win a playoff game in their first two seasons together — C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans with the Houston Texans these last two seasons.
While there are certainly areas in which the Texans need to improve, the first two seasons of the Stroud/Ryans Era have been a success, especially considering what the three seasons before both got her looked like. I mean, we are less than four years removed from a David Culley-led training camp. If you've blocked that from your memory, good for you!
The sand moves through the NFL hourglass swiftly, though, and now, here were, in the third year of C.J. Stroud's career. More directly, we are heading into the third year of his rookie contract. In the NFL, good players work far cheaper on their first contracts than they do their subsequent deals. WAY cheaper. For some context, Stroud's cap hit this season is less than $10 million. In a year or so, he is eligible for a contract extension that will likely exceed $60 million annually.
There is no more valuable asset in sports than a high performing quarterback on his rookie contract. When a team in the NFL finds one, it's incumbent upon them to maximize that window, considering the league's salary cap will become a much bigger obstacle when that quarterbacks cap hit quintuples in future years.
The rookie wage scale under which young players exist in the NFL went into effect prior to the 2011 season. Since then, seven teams with quarterbacks on their initial NFL contracts (i.e. QBs who work cheap) have made a Super Bowl, and only two of those seven actually won the Super Bowl. In other words, taking advantage of the rookie contract window for a quarterback is FAR easier said than done.
Here are those seven quarterbacks, and how far their teams went in each of their first four seasons. From there, we can wrap up briefly discussing the Texans and our confidence level in Stroud adding his name to this list:
PATRICK MAHOMES, Chiefs2017 – 1 regular season start
2018 – lost AFC title game (regular season MVP)
2019 – won Super Bowl (Super Bowl MVP)
2020 – lost Super Bowl
RUSSELL WILSON, Seahawks 2012 – lost divisional round
2013 – won Super Bowl
2014 – lost Super Bowl
2015 – lost divisional round
JOE BURROW, Bengals 2020 – injured, played 10 games
2021 – lost Super Bowl
2022 – lost AFC title game
2023 – injured, played 10 games
JALEN HURTS, Eagles 2020 – 4 starts (1-3 record)
2021 – lost wild card round
2022 – lost Super Bowl
2023 – lost wlld card round
BROCK PURDY, 49ers 2022 – lost NFC title game
2023 – lost Super Bowl
2024 – 6-11 record
COLIN KAEPERNICK, 49ers
2011 – 0 regular season starts
2012 – lost Super Bowl (7 regular season starts)
2013 – lost NFC title game
2014 – 8-8 record
JARED GOFF, Rams
2016 – 0-7 (Jeff Fisher, final season as HC)
2017 – lost wild card round
2018 – lost Super Bowl
2019 – 9-7, missed playoffs
While the Texans' results, as we mentioned above, have been just fine, I would give mixed reviews as to how the Texans have handled Stroud's first two seasons, in an effort to maximize this window. The aggressiveness that they moved with in 2024, in acquiring Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, and Danielle Hunter was top notch.
Conversely, the handling of the offensive line has been less than spectacular. Last season, they allowed the second most sacks in the league, and it is very much in question as to whether they'll be any better this season. Also, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was fired after last season, so by definition, the coaching was not good on that side of the ball.
In the end, if Stroud is going to be on the list of quarterbacks above, quarterbacks for teams who were able to at least GET TO the Super Bowl with a rookie-contract quarterback, the Texans will need to surprise some people this season, and the offensive line will have to be light years better. The overall talent level on the Texans is maybe the best it's ever been. Now, they need to go win at a higher level.
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