The Buffalo Bills lost the 2024 AFC Championship to the Kansas City Chiefs by a mere three points, taking a 32-29 loss.
With two minutes remaining on fourth-and-five, Josh Allen, that season's NFL MVP, dropped back and threw over the middle to his one target that had space - second year tight end Dalton Kincaid.
The ball went right into Kincaid's arms, but Kincaid couldn't hold on to it, dropping the ball and turning the ball over to the Chiefs, allowing them to run out the game clock and earn a trip to the Super Bowl.
Kincaid's drop was a devastating end to a once-promising Bills season. Had Kincaid made the catch, the Bills would have been well-positioned to win or take the lead for a trip to the first Super Bowl to feature the Bills since 1993.
Allen immediately took the blame for the play after the game.
“He can sit there and think about that play over and over, but I got to be better for him,” Allen said. “That’s what it comes down to, and get him more involved.”
“I didn’t feel like I put him in enough good situations this year, ball-placement-wise,” Allen added.
Allen and Kincaid have had a lot of trouble connecting over Kincaid's two NFL seasons. The 25-year old tight end is entering the third season of his four-year, $13.4 million rookie contract.
“According to Fantasy Points, only 69 percent of Kincaid’s 81 targets were deemed catchable passes, and on Allen’s attempts of 10 or more air yards downfield, only 37 percent were deemed catchable,” wrote Sal Maiorana of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle. “That’s brutal, plain and simple. For whatever reason, Allen and Kincaid just couldn’t get on the same page.”
According to NFL analyst Joe Marine, the rate of uncatchable targets between Allen and Kincaid was the highest in the NFL, as he explained on his Locked and on Bills podcast.
“You’re still developing chemistry with a lot of different players and maybe you take for granted that Kincaid was an established player, but still a young guy that you needed to evolve with,” Marino said on the Thursday Locked on podcast. “And so I think the overall turnover at the skill positions didn’t help.”
Marino alno noted that Kincaid was drafted into an offensive system run by then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was fired 10 games into Kincaid's career.
“I think there’s something to be said there. Right there is an acclamation and adjustment for everyone,” Marino noted.
“Allen was right on the money regarding his season assessment of his connection with Kincaid,” Maiorana wrote in the wake of the Bills stunning AFC Championship defeat. “It was not good, both players share the blame in their lack of chemistry, and it’s something that has to be fixed for the 2025 season.”