When first-round pick Jaxson Dart will become the starting quarterback for the New York Giants is a matter of great debate. Could it be Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints if the Giants start the season 0-4? Could it be some time in the second half of the season? Could Dart just get a late-season cameo start? Could his time as the starter wait until 2026?
Nobody, not even head head coach Brian Daboll, knows for sure.
Starting quarterback Russell Wilson’s performance, the Giants’ overall competitiveness, Dart’s progress and maybe even Daboll’s desperation to save his job could all be factors.
Somewhat stunningly, SPN’s Mike Clay is projecting that Dart, picked 25th in the draft after a trade up by the Giants, will play in more games than Wilson. In his annual projection guide, Clay has Dart playing in nine 2025 games while Wilson gets into only seven.
Clay has Dart completing 183 of 294 passes (62.2%) for 1,968 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
It would take a horrific start by the Giants and a quick progression by Dart to make this happen, but it certainly can’t be ruled out.
Here are a few more individual projections for the Giants from Clay:
Running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. with a team-leading 807 rushing yards on 186 carries in 14 games. Rookie Cam Skattebo with 691 yards on 160 carries, also in 14 games. Veteran Devin Singletary is an afterthought, with just 32 carries all season.
Clay projects Malik Nabers with 95 receptions for 1,241 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games. That would be eighth in the NFL in receptions and fifth in receiving yards. Those numbers might be considered a disappointment by some after Nabers caught 109 passes in 15 games as a rookie.
Brian Burns (8.4) is projected to lead the Giants in sacks, followed by Kayvon Thibodeaux (6.6), Abdul Carter (6.4) and Dexter Lawrence (5.8).
Clay projects a bounce-back year for inside linebacker Bobby Okereke, with team highs in defensive snaps played (1,022) and tackles (140).
The Giants have the league’s fifth-hardest schedule, per Clay’s calculations.
Newly-signed cornerback Paulson Adebo is projected for a team-best 3.2 interceptions.
Clay has the Giants with more than a 50% chance to win just three games — 59% Week 5 vs. the Saints, 53% Week 9 vs. the San Francisco 49ers and 52% Week 17 at the Las Vegas Raiders.
Overall, Clay’s projection has the Giants winning 6.6 games and picked No. 5 in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Clay projects the Giants to have the league’s sixth-ranked defense, but just the 27th-ranked offense.
Your thoughts on these projections, Giants fans?