No lead is safe. That adage gets used a lot but it has never been more true than this season. After the [New York Knicks](https://fansided.com/nba/new-york-knicks)’ comeback from down 20 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, there have been nine games in these playoffs where a team has come back from down 15 or more. That’s tied for the most in a playoff series since 2020 in the Bubble.
There have been more comebacks of more than 15 than in any postseason going back to at least 2003, and six comebacks of 20 or more, double the second-most in the 2016 playoffs.
Tom Thibodeau credited the three-point shot and pace of play for the wild variance that we see routinely, and indeed, it seems that the three-point volume has contributed to it.
But there’s also another factor that goes along with the change in shot location. Teams are generally more vulnerable when they have the lead and are playing from a position of advantage.
The Pacers are an elite offense; they have been for two seasons. From the time they went up 20 to the time that the Knicks pulled within three, Indiana had an 87.9 offensive rating.
Some of this is predictable. You’re not going to come back if a team is continuing to score at a high clip. But this wasn’t “below average offense vs. thermonuclear offense.” Teams in the Pacers’ position, and the Celtics before them, and the Cavaliers and Bucks against the Pacers as well, tend to let up.
What’s interesting is that the three-ball was significant in the Knicks’ comeback, but not for wild shooting or terribly poor shooting. The Knicks were 6-of-10 in that quarter-and-a-half stretch, the Pacers 1-of-6. But the more important numbers there are the 10 and the 6. The Knicks didn’t let the Pacers get to separator threes and they generated catch-up shots.
The Pacers, in particular, are not well-built to nurse a lead. They play up-tempo, and while it’s a misnomer that they try to get fast shots, they actually average the most shots among all playoff teams with between four and seven seconds left on the clock; they do want to play with a style of urgency.
But there is something to this era of basketball that means teams can’t handle prosperity. It means no game is really out of reach.
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NBA Playoffs adjustments update
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* The Knicks’ lineup change didn’t really have the desired effect. It was a +1 in this game, which is, of course, better than getting destroyed like the other starting lineup has been. But that’s the ironic part. The best lineup for the Knicks in Game 3? Their former starting unit, +9.
* Minnesota disrupted the Thunder’s pick-and-roll attack by dropping deeper and going under screens more often against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Wolves both pinched more aggressively from the wings and also higher up the floor to deny SGA easy passes to shooters. The question in Game 4 will be if SGA is able to take and make pull-up threes, which is arguably the lone weakness in his offensive game.
* OKC’s messaging after Game 3 was about their lack of physicality and how unlike themselves they played. Mark Daigneault has had the high ground for much of these playoffs and hasn’t had to make any major adjustments yet. Was his starting of one big in the second half of Game 3 an experiment in a game he knew was lost or something he’ll carry over?
* It seems likely we’re headed for a Pacers counter-adjustment to the Knicks going big by going small. Obi Toppin was a +19 in Game 3 and a +17 for the series.