The lion’s share of attention in the NBA goes to top-flight players, the kind selected with premium lottery picks. That’s appropriate. In a star-driven league, a single player can change the fortunes of a franchise for an entire generation. Just ask the San Antonio Spurs in the 1990’s. And 2000’s. And 2010’s. And right now.
But each NBA Draft runs 60 players deep. The final 30 of those are selected in the second round. Contracts are different. Expectations are muted. What kind of value to these picks, and players, really have? That’s the subject of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Who cares about 2nd round draft picks? Portland seems to covet them. It’s so rare that a gem comes out of the 2nd round (sure there are a few, Joker, Drayvon, Camara, etc.) If they do, I think it’s from poor scouting, not recognizing talent and drafting mistakes. Take all of our 2nd round picks and try to trade them for 1st round or sweeten the deals with 5 or 6 2nd round picks instead of a 1st
Michael
You’ve already mentioned the obvious counter to the “valueless second-round pick” argument: sometimes you can get a pretty nice player with them. Denver found that out with future-MVP Nikola Jokic in the 2014 NBA Draft. He was selected 41st overall. You mention the Portland Trail Blazers and current starter Toumani Camara. Jerome Kersey and Cliff Robinson were heralded second-round selections in days of yore.
Obviously, though, chances of finding a star are slimmer in the second round than they are with the high picks in the draft. The field will be more picked over in the 40’s than it will at #3. That doesn’t preclude finding a serviceable player, though.
Defining “serviceable player” lies at the core of the rest of your argument. You cite poor scouting and a failure to recognize talent as factors that devalue second-round picks. I don’t think that’s the issue. Instead you have to look at the conditions necessary to make a player successful in the NBA.
Every NBA player—heck, every player selected anywhere in the draft—has world-class talent. These guys are bigger, stronger, faster, and more skilled than we can imagine. After being drafted, they’re thrust into a world of similarly big, strong, fast, and talented players. They’re then asked to occupy a specific role with consistency, professionalism, and near-unfailing excellence. As they’re negotiating that, half of the players on their team—and ultimately, the rest of the professional basketball players across the globe—are trying to unseat them, proving that they deserve those minutes and that contract instead.
Success doesn’t just depend on talent. It depends on the role a player is asked to play, the actual opportunity on that roster to fill the role, the opponents faced while pursuing that role, and the overall direction and emphasis of the team on which that role is served.
Let’s say I’m a milkshake maker. I make the best milkshakes this side of the Mississippi. If I get drafted by Dairy Queen, I’m probably going to look pretty good. If I get drafted onto Top Chef, not so much. Unless, of course, Top Chef is running a dessert challenge on this episode. Then I might have the chance to shine. But chances are the producers are going to decide to replace me at some point, either with a more well-rounded chef or with one who fits their next challenge of the day.
That’s the life of a second-round pick. Plenty of them get selected on talent or promise every year but just never end up in a situation to showcase their talents fully.
This also highlights the difficulty for scouts and managers when judging second-round picks. You’re probably not going to find an all-around superstar. What do you go for, among 40-odd players at roughly similar talent levels? Do you look for reliability? Physical attributes? A single, shining skill that stands out? Someone who fits the needs of your team by position or general skillset? The equation is complex. It’s no surprise that it doesn’t ultimately add up for most of these players and their teams. That doesn’t make pick or player valueless, nor scouting “wrong”. Accounting for all the variables correctly is impossible the vast majority of the time.
Here’s what you know when you make a second-round pick. You’re getting a professional-quality player with enough attributes to make you think they have a chance to make it in the NBA. The road for them is going to be longer than it is for your upper-echelon picks. They’re going to have to develop and adjust more. They’re going to face increased competition when carving out a place on the roster. That place will also be less secure than the solid fortresses that stars occupy. Shifting terrain can obliterate or devalue this player’s niche in an instant.
The question, then, isn’t whether this particular player is going to make it. That depends on far more than the player and your draft judgment about them. The real question is whether there’s value in having a player walking that journey versus leaving the path empty by not selecting anyone. Most teams decide that taking a flyer on a player is more valuable than passing up the opportunity. That’s why second-round picks still exist.
However you have identified another possible use for the picks themselves. You say that Portland covets second-rounders. They’re actually trading away a second-round pick in each of the next six drafts. Not all of those picks are theirs organically. Many were received from other teams in a trade, then shuffled onward in the next one. But those resources were helpful in facilitating deals from which the franchise has benefitted. Simply dismissing them as valueless short-changes their utility on the trade market. For that reason alone, the franchise should regard them as they would any other asset.
If the Blazers seem to value selecting and playing second-rounders recently, it’s because of their growth stage as much as anything. They’re rebuilding. Over the last few seasons they’ve bumped up against the luxury tax threshold, unable to add salary. Under those conditions—looking for talent from any source, low expectations for actual team success, mandate to keep costs down—second-round players rise in value. If the team ever solidifies and soars, stocking the cupboard with veterans and leaving only one or two roster spaces open, second-rounders will become less useful.
Until then, the problem in Portland remains the same as ever. They need a franchise-changing hit, the next Stairway to Heaven or Smells Like Teen Spirit. Picking in the second round is more likely to yield Eurovision’s Bara Bada Bastu. Nåjaa!!! Catchy tune! You’re not sad to have it on your playlist for as long as you need. But it’s not likely to be relevant enough to make a difference. It’s going to get displaced soon by the next bop, not because it’s bad, but because that’s just the way the industry goes.
That doesn’t mean Eurovision and poor KAJ lack value, though. A song about sauna isn’t going to top the Hot 100 or feature at your wedding processional, but if you stick it in at the reception dance and it gets Uncle Gus away from the open bar and onto the dance floor, you’ve more than gotten your money’s worth.
Thanks for the question! You can send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to get to as many as possible!