Going into tonight's pivotal Game 4 matchup between the Knicks and Pacers, there's plenty of intrigue around not only whether New York will tie the series at 2-2, but also the various player prop options.
On the surface, Knicks stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson seem like good bets to have big nights, again, but they'll need to put up massive numbers to cash their points props.
With the Pacers giving at least 10 players significant minutes in Games 1-3, will Game 4 mark another breakout for one of Indiana's reserves?
Karl-Anthony Towns 25+ Points (+160 at bet365) -- 1 unit
Starting with the obvious, yes, we expect betting on Towns to once again pay off in this matchup.
He posted underwhelming point totals, at least compared to what he did vs. Indiana in the regular season, in Games 2 (20 points in 27:41) and 3 (24 points in 32:59) of this series.
But in the fourth quarter of Game 3 on Sunday night, he once again showed that outside of exploiting his defense so badly that the Knicks have to bench him, the Pacers simply don't have an answer for him.
While Towns isn't going to become a defensive stopper any time soon, he should be serviceable enough on that end to stay on the court.
As long as that happens, he should continue to take advantage of whoever Indiana throws at him, whether that's Myles Turner, Pascal Siakam or Tony Bradley.
Towns has also been a consistent force on the glass in this matchup, including a 15-rebound night in Game 3. That makes Towns 35+ Points + Rebs (+105 at DraftKings) tempting after he piled up 47 P+R in Game 1 and 39 P+R in Game 3, including a 20-point, 8-rebound fourth quarter that changed the outlook of this series.
Ben Sheppard 1+ Made Three (-135 at bet365) -- 1 unit
For our second prop bet in this game, we're looking at backup Pacers guard Ben Sheppard, who could be one of the top beneficiaries in terms of playing time and shot volume if Aaron Nesmith is limited by his sprained ankle.
Sheppard's minutes have already increased throughout the series -- from 7:15 in Game 1 to 12:42 in Game 2 to 17:08 in Game 3. Even if Nesmith gets the start tonight, I think we'll see an uptick in playing time for both Sheppard and T.J. McConnell.
Sheppard has quietly knocked down over 40 percent of his 3-point attempts in the playoffs. That includes his 3-of-5 3-point shooting in this series, including 2-of-3 in Game 2.
Though it's important to acknowledge that as of Tuesday afternoon, Nesmith is questionable (not out) tonight, Sheppard's production when he played without Nesmith in the regular season is notable.
In 22 regular-season games where the second-year man out of Belmont was in the lineup and Nesmith was not, Sheppard averaged 3.27 3PA per game and hit 24 of 72 total treys. Based on his hot shooting in the playoffs, if Sheppard gets a handful of 3PA tonight, he should be good for at least 1 made three, if not two.
In fact, Sheppard 2+ Made Threes (+320 at bet365) is as tempting a 3-to-1-or-longer prop bet as you'll find. Remember, he's knocked down two 3-pointers in two of Indiana's last five games, and both those performances came in games where Nesmith was at full strength.
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This story was originally published May 27, 2025 at 11:45 AM.