The scale of Manchester United’s underachievement has been highlighted by a financial analysis that rates their performance last season compared with money spent as one of the worst ever by an English club.
United had the third-highest outlay in the Premier League on wages, transfers and agents, behind Manchester City and Chelsea, but finished in 15th place on 42 points. The analysis suggests that was 33 points fewer than the club should have achieved.
Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur were the next biggest underperformers, while Nottingham Forest were the biggest achievers compared with their spending, followed by Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion.
The analysis, carried out for The Times, was based on figures reported in clubs’ most recent annual accounts (2023-24) to measure spending on wages and amortisation, which reflects the outlay on transfers over several years, as well as on agents’ fees for the 2024-25 season.
The sports intelligence agency Twenty First Group has used the figures to calculate “expected points” — how many points a club would be expected to secure over a season given their spending — and then measure how a club have performed compared with their spending.
Omar Chaudhuri, the chief intelligence officer at Twenty First Group, said: “Manchester United underperformed by 33 points. This is the biggest underperformance by an English club in the Premier League era, beating the likes of Aston Villa in 2016 and Chelsea in 2023, who also underachieved by more than 30 points.
“In other words, on a pound-for-pound basis, this Manchester United team is one of the worst English football has ever seen. Their spend was 12 per cent higher than both Liverpool and Arsenal, who have shown the level of consistency that is possible with a top-six budget.”
United will experience lower revenues of at least £80million next season through missing out on Uefa TV money by not being in Europe, by having fewer matches at Old Trafford, lower Premier League merit money and a £10million Adidas penalty clause for not being in the Champions League.
Nevertheless, Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert who works at the University of Liverpool, believes United can still cope with the challenges presented by Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) and buy new players — especially if they can generate significant sums by selling Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho.
“They are still the biggest brand in English football, the wage bill will go down because they are not in Europe and it looks as though [co-owners] Ineos are taking a draconian approach to cost-cutting so I think they can box clever, get some new players and still not have any issues with PSR,” Maguire said.
Forest have invested heavily in players since promotion from the Championship in 2023 but still won 18 more points than expected, given their spending. “They have managed to get more out of their spend through a combination of smarter recruitment, a playing style that suits those players, and one of the best injury records in the league,” Chaudhuri said.
He identified Brentford and Brighton as “perennial overachievers”, adding: “This past season was another year of outperforming teams on bigger budgets, with two of the lowest five spends in the league.”
It is the first season since Pep Guardiola took over at Manchester City in 2016 that the club — the biggest spenders on wages, transfers and agents’ fees in the Premier League — have underperformed relative to their budget. Chelsea, the second-biggest spenders, have underachieved since being taken over in 2022 but improved their record last season.
Chaudhuri added that it was the first time Spurs had underperformed compared with their budget since 2008-09.
Labels
Brentford FC Brighton and Hove Albion Manchester United Nottingham Forest Premier League Tottenham Hotspur
West Bromwich Albion had effectively been in decline ever since the club was sold to a Chinese consortium in August 2016, paying a figure north of £200m to buy former owner Jeremy Peace’s stake. Controlling shareholder Guochuan Lai’s ownership was fairly disastrous for the club, but his unloved tenure finally came to an end after Bilkul Football WBA, a company ultimately owned by Florida-based entrepreneur Shilen Patel and his father Dr Kiran Patel, acquired an 87.8% shareholding in West Bromwich Albion Group Limited, the parent company of West Bromwich Albion Football Club. This change in ownership was urgently required, due to the numerous financial problems facing West Brom, including growing high-interest debt and serious cash flow concerns, following years of no investment from the former owner. Indeed, West Brom’s auditors had already rung the alarm bell in the 2021/22 accounts when they cast doubt on the club’s ability to continue as a going concern without making player s...
Tottenham Hotspur is in talks to sell a minority stake in a deal that could value it at up to £3.75 billion and pave the way for Joe Lewis and his family to sever ties with the Premier League football club. Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy is seeking an investment that values the club at between £3.5 billion and £3.75 billion, including debt. While the terms of any deal have not been finalised, City sources expect Spurs to sell about 10 per cent. The club is being advised by bankers from Rothschild on the sale. Tottenham wants to raise fresh capital for new player signings and to help fund the development of an academy for its women’s team, as well as a 30-storey hotel next to its north London stadium. The financier Amanda Staveley, who brokered the deal for Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund to take over Newcastle United, is understood to be among the parties to have expressed an interest in Tottenham. Staveley’s fund, PCP Capital Partners, has raised about £500 million to ...
Millwall’s season was overshadowed by the tragic death of owner John Berylson following a car accident. The American had been an exemplary owner, beloved by the fans for his leadership, passion and generosity. Millwall’s finances had been pretty good during his tenure, which we shall explore by looking at the most recent accounts from the 2022/23 season, when the club narrowly missed out on a place in the play-offs after finishing 8th. Millwall’s pre-tax loss slightly reduced from £12.6m to £12.2m, as revenue rose £0.8m (4%) from £18.6m to a club record £19.4m and player sales improved from a £0.1m loss to £2.5m profit. However, other operating income dropped from by £1.1m from £1.3m to £0.2m, while operating expenses increased £1.7m (5%) from £31.6m to £33.3m. The main driver of the revenue increase was broadcasting, which rose £1.1m (12%) from £9.1m to £10.2m, though match day was also up £0.4m (7%) from £5.8m to £6.2m. In contrast, commercial fell £0.7m (19%) from £3.7m to £3....