The Baltimore Ravens are among the best teams in the sport, headlined by quarterback Lamar Jackson and the cast of high-level stars around him. The goal has been the same since Jackson rose to stardom.
However, going toe-to-toe with the best teams in the AFC has proven to be quite the challenge. In 2023, the Kansas City Chiefs wrote a chapter of their dynasty by walking into Baltimore and ripping away a spot in the Super Bowl. A year later, the Ravens’ mistakes cost them on the road against the Buffalo Bills.
Baltimore is yet to win the conference with Jackson under center, despite coming heartbreakingly close and consistently getting to the dance. At some point, things may very well tilt in its favor.
The clock is ticking, but ESPN’s FPI model is high on the Ravens’ 2025 fate.
As Seth Walder noted, Baltimore is the third-best team in the league by FPI, trailing only the Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs. At nine percent, the Ravens are also listed as the fourth-most-likely team to win the Super Bowl (trailing the aforementioned favorites and the Bills). No other team in the AFC gets to five percent.
"The NFL's 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills," Walder wrote. "These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, meaning none of them would be favored by more than a single point over another on a neutral field. But there's a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Bills and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.
"All five teams in the top tier have at least an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that the Super Bowl winner is one of those five teams. No other team has greater than a 5% chance to win it all."
Baltimore deserves to be fully in that conversation. With an impressive crop of early-round rookies, more depth on the offensive line, and receiver DeAndre Hopkins insulating the passing offense, Jackson is as well-equipped as ever to make a run.
Needless to say, the Ravens’ chances run through Jackson. This isn’t the 2012 team that needed a Joe Flacco hot streak to match the defense’s potential. Baltimore has a superstar quarterback and the talent to win with him. With Jackson in his prime, the bar has been set by fans, analysts, and the analytics, too. It’s on Baltimore to make good on that collective optimism.