The NBA Finals could be a dream scenario for the Atlanta Hawks, or as close to one that a team can face without participating in it themselves.
The Oklahoma City Thunder already made it.
In the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers could join them as soon as Thursday night. OKC made it to the Finals despite not being one of the 11 teams in the luxury tax for the 2024-25 season, and if the Pacers make it, both teams will have bucked the trend.
“The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers would be the first NBA Finals since the luxury tax was in effect where neither team was a taxpayer,” Spotrac’s Keith Smith posted on X on May 28 after OKC eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves. “At least one team was a taxpayer in every Finals where the luxury tax was in effect (2002 & 2005 did not have luxury taxes due to lack of BRI.)
“Overall, 26 of the 44 teams in the NBA Finals since the luxury tax was in effect have been taxpayers. 16 of the 22 champions since the luxury tax was in effect have been taxpayers.”
Perhaps most encouraging, the Thunder did not draft their top player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Pacers share many of the same characteristics, including acquiring their franchise player, Tyrese Haliburton, via a trade.
OKC has been a media darling for years due to their approach, though, and it is finally paying off.
Thunder (& Pacers) usher in new era of NBA Finals contenders
To be clear, the Thunder have multiple lottery picks contributing to their success, including Gilgeous-Alexander, who was selected 11th overall by the Charlotte Hornets in 2018 and began his ascension to stardom with the Los Angeles Clippers.
Gilgeous-Alexander took home the MVP this season.
The Hawks must ask themselves if Trae Young can be their Gilgeous-Alexander. That is, the engine on a championship contender.
They have the 2020-21 Eastern Conference Finals run to fall back on, but that is quickly becoming relatively distant history. The Hawks have already changed head coaches and are on their third lead executive since that run.
Still, a Pacers-Thunder Finals would make a strong argument for a tax-averse owner.
Moreover, the Pacers are 18th in payroll his season, while the Thunder are 25th. The Hawks are 20th.
Will the Hawks look to add money, shed expensive veteran contracts, or merely shift how their funds are allocated? That is the big question heading into the offseason, made even more nebulous by the lack of a clear architect for whatever changes they make.
The other thing the Hawks will need is patience.
Neither the Thunder nor the Pacers were built in one offseason, though both have shown signs of their current arcs for multiple seasons now.
It must also be noted that both teams are facing squads ranked in the top four in spending this season. In many ways, it shows that teams can still buy contenders, but that the organic method (really a hybrid of the two) is still the best method for getting to play for a championship.